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Chômage partiel et disparition des établissements : une analyse à partir de données françaises

  • Oana Calavrezo

    ()

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS - UO - Université d'Orléans)

  • Richard Duhautois

    ()

    (CEE - Centre d'études de l'emploi - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12)

  • Emmanuelle Walkowiak

    ()

    (CEE - Centre d'études de l'emploi - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS)

Selon la loi, le chômage partiel est un dispositif légal qui permettrait aux établissements d'éviter les licenciements économiques en cas de difficultés passagères. Dans une étude précédente, nous montrons que le recours au chômage partiel ne réduit pas les licenciements économiques mais semble en être annonciateur (Calavrezo, Duhautois, Walkowiak, 2009-a). Cependant, le chômage partiel pourrait préserver les établissements de la fermeture. Dans ce travail, nous explorons l'efficacité du dispositif du chômage partiel en lien avec la disparition des établissements. Le recours au chômage partiel n'est pas distribué aléatoirement dans la population des établissements, ce qui pose un problème de biais de sélection. Pour le contrôler, nous apparions six sources de données et nous testons empiriquement la relation à l'aide de modèles d'appariement sur le score de propension entre 2000 et 2005. En prenant en compte le biais de sélection, les résultats montrent qu'en moyenne les établissements qui ont recours au chômage partiel disparaissent plus fréquemment que ceux qui n'ont pas recours au dispositif.

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Date of creation: 2010
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00831493
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