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2°C or not 2°C?

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  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2°C. However, there is no consensus on both questions "Is the 2°C target achievable?" and "What should be done with this target that becomes increasingly difficult to achieve?". This paper aims at disentangling the points of deep uncertainty underlying this absence on consensus. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2°C target and shows how key assumptions (on the points of deep uncertainty) influence the answer to the target achievability question. It then proposes an "uncertainties and decisions tree", linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Guivarch, 2012. "2°C or not 2°C?," Post-Print halshs-00757079, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00757079
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Li, Jun & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Cassen, Christophe, 2017. "Aligning domestic policies with international coordination in a post-Paris global climate regime: A case for China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 258-274.
    3. Hallegatte, Stephane & Fay, Marianne & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2013. "Green industrial policies : when and how," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6677, The World Bank.
    4. Audoly, Richard & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Guivarch, Céline & Pfeiffer, Alexander, 2018. "Pathways toward zero-carbon electricity required for climate stabilization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 884-901.

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