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2C or Not 2C?


  • Céline Guivarch

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement)

  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement and Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie, Météo-France)


Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2°C. However, to date the only mitigation commitments accompanying this target are the so-called Copenhagen pledges, and these pledges appear to be inconsistent with the 2°C objective. Diverging opinions on whether this inconsistency can or should be resolved have been expressed. This paper clarifies the alternative assumptions underlying these diverging view points and explicits their implications. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2°C target. It then proposes a “decision tree”, linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Guivarch & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2011. "2C or Not 2C?," Working Papers 2011.87, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.87

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jean Charles Hourcade & Philippe Ambrosi & Stéphane Hallegatte & Franck Lecocq & Patrice Dumas & Minh Ha-Duong, 2003. "Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages," Post-Print halshs-00000966, HAL.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baptiste Perrissin Fabert & Etienne Espagne & Antonin Pottier & Patrice Dumas, 2012. "The “Doomsday” Effect in Climate Policies. Why is the Present Decade so Crucial to Tackling the Climate Challenge?," Working Papers 2012.62, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Pezzey, John C.V. & Burke, Paul J., 2014. "Towards a more inclusive and precautionary indicator of global sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 141-154.
    3. Baptiste Perrissin Fabert & Antonin Pottier & Etienne Espagne & Patrice Dumas & Franck Nadaud, 2014. "Why are climate policies of the present decade so crucial for keeping the 2 °C target credible?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 337-349, October.
    4. Richard Audoly & Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Céline Guivarch, 2014. "Pathways toward Zero-Carbon Electricity Required for Climate Stabilization," CIRED Working Papers hal-01079837, HAL.

    More about this item


    Feasibility of 2°C Target; Climate Change Negotiations;

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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