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Global anthropogenic heat emissions from energy consumption, 1965–2100

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Lu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Haikun Wang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Qin’geng Wang

    (Nanjing University
    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Yanyan Zhang

    (Nanjing University)

  • Yiyong Yu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Yu Qian

    (Nanjing University)

Abstract

Anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) is an important contributor to regional climate change, and may affect air quality in many ways. To gain a complete picture of global AHEs and lay a basis for modeling, in this study, global and regional AHEs from energy consumption are estimated for the past nearly five decades, and projected for the future through the year 2100. From 1965 to 2013, global AHE increased from 148 to 485 EJ/year, and the anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) over land increased from 0.03 to 0.10 W/m2. Meanwhile, AHE per capita increased from 44.6 to 68.1 GJ. Regional differences are remarkable. In 2013, AHFs in Asia Pacific (AP), the Middle East (ME), North America (NA), Europe and Eurasia (EE), South and Central America (SCA), and Africa (AF) were 0.23, 0.22, 0.09, 0.08, 0.04, and 0.02 W/m2, respectively. During the past 50 years, AHFs in ME, AP, AF, and SCA have increased by factors of 15.3, 10.8, 5.6, and 4.0. However, growth in NA and EE has been relatively slow. In the high, moderate, and low scenarios, by 2100, the terrestrial AHFs are projected to be 0.28, 0.24, and 0.19 W/m2, respectively. The largest increase would occur in Asia and ME. Although the mean AHF is small compared to the forcing of GHGs, it may exert quite distinctive effects on the climate and the environment because of the surface-based emissions and uneven geographical distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Lu & Haikun Wang & Qin’geng Wang & Yanyan Zhang & Yiyong Yu & Yu Qian, 2017. "Global anthropogenic heat emissions from energy consumption, 1965–2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 459-468, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:145:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2092-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2092-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    2. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
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    1. Changwei Yuan & Dayong Wu & Hongchao Liu, 2017. "Using Grey Relational Analysis to Evaluate Energy Consumption, CO 2 Emissions and Growth Patterns in China’s Provincial Transportation Sectors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-16, December.

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