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L'impact des chocs externes dans les économies du Mercosur: un modèle VAR Structurel

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  • Céline Gimet

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Cette étude vise à déterminer les causes de la déstabilisation des pays du Mercosur ces dernières années, à l'origine du flottement des monnaies. A l'aide d'un VAR Structurel, nous analysons l'impact d'une politique monétaire restrictive des Etats-Unis, d'une baisse de la confiance des marchés financiers, et d'une hausse des prix mondiaux des produits agricoles sur les secteurs réel, financier et monétaire de ces pays. La vulnérabilité des économies à ces chocs révèle le défaut de soutenabilité des régimes de change en place durant cette période. En outre, bien que les réactions des pays à chaque type de choc soient proches, des divergences subsistent du fait de l'hétérogénéité des structures macroéconomiques et financières des pays.

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Gimet, 2007. "L'impact des chocs externes dans les économies du Mercosur: un modèle VAR Structurel," Post-Print halshs-00356105, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00356105
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00356105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "The viability of an economic and monetary union in Africa with a unified currency: evidence from the African economies' reactions to the international income, price and monetary shocks," Working Papers hal-00851594, HAL.
    2. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et dans la zone euro : un modèle VAR structurel," CEPN Working Papers hal-00493384, HAL.
    3. Nassirou, Aïchat, 2017. "Chocs macroéconomiques et intégration d’une union économique et monétaire: cas du Nigéria
      [Macroeconomic shocks and integration of an economic and monetary union: case of Nigeria]
      ," MPRA Paper 79167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mohamed BELHEDI & Ines SLAMA & Amine LAHIANI, 2015. "Tranmission Of International Shocks To An Emerging Small Open-Economy: Evidence From Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 231-258.
    5. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "Impact of international income, prices and monetary shocks on real exchange rate in eight African economies: An empirical study," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 41-54, September.
    6. Marine COUPAUD, 2014. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3 : Un Modèle Var Structurel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 113-138.

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