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L'impact des chocs externes dans les économies du Mercosur: un modèle VAR Structurel

  • Céline Gimet

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

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    Cette étude vise à déterminer les causes de la déstabilisation des pays du Mercosur ces dernières années, à l'origine du flottement des monnaies. A l'aide d'un VAR Structurel, nous analysons l'impact d'une politique monétaire restrictive des Etats-Unis, d'une baisse de la confiance des marchés financiers, et d'une hausse des prix mondiaux des produits agricoles sur les secteurs réel, financier et monétaire de ces pays. La vulnérabilité des économies à ces chocs révèle le défaut de soutenabilité des régimes de change en place durant cette période. En outre, bien que les réactions des pays à chaque type de choc soient proches, des divergences subsistent du fait de l'hétérogénéité des structures macroéconomiques et financières des pays.

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    File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/35/61/05/PDF/SVAR_Mercosur-1.pdf
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    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00356105.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Publication status: Published, Economie Internationale, 2007, 110, pp. 107-136
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00356105
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00356105/en/
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