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L'impact des chocs externes dans les economies du Mercosur : un modele var structurel

  • Celine Gimet
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    Cette etude vise a determiner les causes de la destabilisation des pays du Mercosur ces dernieres annees, a l’origine du flottement des monnaies. A l’aide d’un VAR structurel, nous analysons l’impact d’une politique monetaire restrictive des Etats-Unis, d’une baisse de la confiance des marches financiers, et d’une hausse des prix mondiaux des produits agricoles sur les secteurs reel, financier et monetaire de ces pays. La vulnerabilite des economies a ces chocs revele le defaut de soutenabilite des regimes de change en place durant cette periode. En outre, bien que les reactions des pays a chaque type de choc soient proches, des divergences subsistent du fait de l’heterogeneite des structures macroeconomiques et financieres des pays.

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    File URL: http://www.economieinternationale.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev110/rev110d.htm
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    Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

    Volume (Year): (2007)
    Issue (Month): 110 ()
    Pages: 107-136

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    Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2007-2td
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