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Motivated reasoning in the field: polarization of prose, precedent, and policy in U.S. Circuit Courts, 1891–2013

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Listed:
  • Wei Lu

    (Baruch College [CUNY] - CUNY - City University of New York [New York])

  • Daniel L. Chen

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

This study explores politically motivated reasoning among U.S. Circuit Court judges over the past 120 years, examining their writing style and use of previous case citations in judicial opinions. Employing natural language processing and supervised machine learn- ing, we scrutinize how judges' language choices and legal citations reflect partisan slant. Our findings reveal a consistent, albeit modest, polarization in citation practices. More notably, there is a significant increase in polarization within the textual content of opin-ions, indicating a stronger presence of motivated reasoning in their prose. We also exam-ine the impact of heightened scrutiny on judicial reasoning. On divided panels and as midterm elections draw near, judges show an increase in dissent votes while decreas-ing in polarization in both writing and citation practices. Furthermore, our study explores polarization dynamics among judges who are potential candidates for Supreme Court promotion. We observe that judges on the shortlist for Supreme Court vacancies demonstrate greater polarization in their selection of precedents

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Lu & Daniel L. Chen, 2025. "Motivated reasoning in the field: polarization of prose, precedent, and policy in U.S. Circuit Courts, 1891–2013," Post-Print hal-05012949, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05012949
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0318790
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05012949v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. David Autor & Nicole Maestas & Kathleen Mullen & Alexander Strand, 2011. "Does Delay Cause Decay? The Effect of Administrative Decision Time on the Labor Force Participation and Earnings of Disability Applicants," Working Papers wp258, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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