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The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Frauke Wiese

    (Europa-Universität Flensburg)

  • Nicolas Taillard

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Emile Balembois

    (Association Négawatt, Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], EVS - Environnement, Ville, Société - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - Université de Lyon - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ALLHiS - Approches Littéraires, Linguistiques et Historiques des Sources - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne, FAYOL-ENSMSE - Institut Henri Fayol - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], FAYOL-ENSMSE - Département Génie de l’environnement pour les organisations - Institut Henri Fayol - ENSM ST-ETIENNE - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de St Etienne)

  • Benjamin Best
  • Stephane Bourgeois

    (Association Négawatt)

  • José Campos

    (ELTE - Eötvös Loránd Tudományegyetem = Eötvös Loránd University [Budapest])

  • Luisa Cordroch

    (Europa-Universität Flensburg)

  • Mathilde Djelali

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Alexandre Gabert

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Adrien Jacob

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Elliott Johnson

    (Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment - University of Leeds)

  • Sébastien Meyer

    (IMMC - Institute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering [Louvain] - UCLouvain - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Béla Munkácsy

    (Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography - ELTE - Eötvös Loránd Tudományegyetem = Eötvös Loránd University [Budapest])

  • Lorenzo Pagliano

    (POLIMI - Politecnico di Milano [Milan])

  • Sylvain Quoilin

    (ULiège - Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich)

  • Andrea Roscetti

    (POLIMI - Politecnico di Milano [Milan])

  • Johannes Thema

    (Europa-Universität Flensburg)

  • Paolo Thiran

    (IMMC - Institute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering [Louvain] - UCLouvain - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Adrien Toledano

    (Association Négawatt)

  • Bendix Vogel

    (Europa-Universität Flensburg)

  • Carina Zell-Ziegler

    (TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Yves Marignac

    (Association Négawatt)

Abstract

A detailed assessment of a low energy demand, 1.5 ∘ C compatible pathway is provided for Europe from a bottom-up, country scale modelling perspective. The level of detail enables a clear representation of the potential of sufficiency measures. Results show that by 2050, 50% final energy demand reduction compared to 2019 is possible in Europe, with at least 40% of it attributable to various sufficiency measures across all sectors. This reduction enables a 77% renewable energy share in 2040 and 100% in 2050, with very limited need for imports from outside of Europe and no carbon sequestration technologies. Sufficiency enables increased fairness between countries through the convergence towards a more equitable share of energy service levels. Here we show, that without sufficiency measures, Europe misses the opportunity to transform energy demand leaving considerable pressure on supply side changes combined with unproven carbon removal technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Frauke Wiese & Nicolas Taillard & Emile Balembois & Benjamin Best & Stephane Bourgeois & José Campos & Luisa Cordroch & Mathilde Djelali & Alexandre Gabert & Adrien Jacob & Elliott Johnson & Sébastien, 2024. "The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe," Post-Print hal-04747574, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04747574
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53393-0
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04747574v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grabow, Simon & Riepl, Tobias & Thema, Johannes & Zell-Ziegler, Carina, 2026. "Efficiency only? An analysis of avoid, shift and improve strategies in EU member states’ long-term mitigation policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    2. Golinucci, Nicolò & Rocco, Matteo Vincenzo & Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Beltrami, Filippo & Rinaldi, Lorenzo & Schau, Erwin M. & Sparber, Wolfram, 2025. "The role of sufficiency measures in a decarbonizing Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Maria Sharmina & Oliver Broad & John Barrett & Christian Brand & Alice Garvey & Harry Kennard & Jonathan Norman & James Price & Steve Pye & Jack Snape & Emily White, 2025. "Policymaker-led scenarios and public dialogue facilitate energy demand analysis for net-zero futures," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1482-1492, December.

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