IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03800655.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ex-post evaluation of the American Airlines-US Airways merger: a structural approach

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Bontemps

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Kevin Remmy

    (université de Mannheim)

  • Jiangyu Wei

    (Compass Lexecon)

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate a structural model of the domestic US airline market to analyse the effect of the recent merger between American Airlines and US Airways. Our results show that, between 2011 and 2016, a substantial fuel price drop, in conjunction with changes in consumer preferences towards direct flights, completely rationalises the observed decrease in prices. However, we estimate that, during the same period, more than half of the consumer welfare increase is due, on top of these environmental changes, to the ex-post optimisation of the networks of the newly merged airline and of its competitors.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Bontemps & Kevin Remmy & Jiangyu Wei, 2022. "Ex-post evaluation of the American Airlines-US Airways merger: a structural approach," Post-Print hal-03800655, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03800655
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03800655
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03800655/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
    3. Jonas Björnerstedt & Frank Verboven, 2016. "Does Merger Simulation Work? Evidence from the Swedish Analgesics Market," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 125-164, July.
    4. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    5. Federico Ciliberto & Jonathan W. Williams, 2014. "Does multimarket contact facilitate tacit collusion? Inference on conduct parameters in the airline industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(4), pages 764-791, December.
    6. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-529, October.
    7. Gayle, Philip G. & Yimga, Jules O., 2018. "How much do consumers really value air travel on-time performance, and to what extent are airlines motivated to improve their on-time performance?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 31-41.
    8. Berry, Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1993. "Some Applications and Limitations of Recent Advances in Empirical Industrial Organization: Merger Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 247-252, May.
    9. Federico Ciliberto & Charles Murry & Elie Tamer, 2021. "Market Structure and Competition in Airline Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(11), pages 2995-3038.
    10. Steven Berry & Panle Jia, 2010. "Tracing the Woes: An Empirical Analysis of the Airline Industry," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-43, August.
    11. Carlton, Dennis & Israel, Mark & MacSwain, Ian & Orlov, Eugene, 2019. "Are legacy airline mergers pro- or anti-competitive? Evidence from recent U.S. airline mergers," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 58-95.
    12. Borenstein, Severin, 1990. "Airline Mergers, Airport Dominance, and Market Power," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 400-404, May.
    13. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    14. Nicholas G. Rupp & Kerry M. Tan, 2019. "Mergers And Product Quality: A Silver Lining From De‐Hubbing In The U.S. Airline Industry," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 652-672, October.
    15. Peters, Craig, 2006. "Evaluating the Performance of Merger Simulation: Evidence from the U.S. Airline Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 627-649, October.
    16. Volodymyr Bilotkach, 2011. "Multimarket Contact and Intensity of Competition: Evidence from an Airline Merger," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 38(1), pages 95-115, January.
    17. Olivier Armantier & Oliver Richard, 2008. "Domestic airline alliances and consumer welfare," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(3), pages 875-904, September.
    18. Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 1993. "Mergers and Market Power: Evidence from the Airline Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 549-569, June.
    19. Chen, Yongmin & Gayle, Philip G., 2019. "Mergers and product quality: Evidence from the airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 96-135.
    20. Michael Mazzeo, 2003. "Competition and Service Quality in the U.S. Airline Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 22(4), pages 275-296, June.
    21. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    22. Paolo Buccirossi & Lorenzo Ciari & Tomaso Duso & Sven-Olof Fridolfsson & Giancarlo Spagnolo & Cristiana Vitale, 2008. "A Short Overview of a Methodology for the Ex-Post Review of Merger Control Decisions," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 453-475, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christian Bontemps & Cristina Gualdani & Kevin Remmy, 2023. "Price Competition and Endogenous Product Choice in Networks: Evidence From the US Airline Industry," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_400, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yanhao Wei, 2018. "Airline networks, traffic densities, and value of links," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 341-370, September.
    2. Yang, Hangjun & Ma, Wenliang & Wang, Qiang & Wang, Kun & Zhang, Yahua, 2020. "Welfare implications for air passengers in China in the era of high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Le Huubinh B. & Yimga Jules, 2019. "Market Power and Marginal Cost Effects in Competing Markets: Evidence from Airline Mergers," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 63-108, June.
    4. Brito, Duarte & Pereira, Pedro & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S., 2013. "Mergers, coordinated effects and efficiency in the Portuguese non-life insurance industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 554-568.
    5. DOI Naoshi & OHASHI Hiroshi, 2015. "An Airline Merger and its Remedies: JAL-JAS of 2002," Discussion papers 15100, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. , 2023. "Price Competition and Endogenous Product Choice in Networks: Evidence from the US airline Industry," Working Papers 950, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Christos Genakos & Andreas Lamprinidis & James Walker, 2023. "Evaluating merger effects," CEP Discussion Papers dp1921, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Ciliberto, Federico & Williams, Jonathan, 2010. "Does Multimarket Contact Facilitate Tacit Collusion? Inference on Conjectural Parameters in the Airline Industry," MPRA Paper 24888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gil, Ricard & Kim, Myongjin, 2021. "Does competition increase quality? Evidence from the US airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Gayle, Philip G. & Thomas, Tyson, 2016. "Assessing firm behavior in carve-out markets: Evidence on the impact of carve-out policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 178-194.
    11. Chen, Yongmin & Gayle, Philip G., 2019. "Mergers and product quality: Evidence from the airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 96-135.
    12. Gayle, Philip G. & Brown, Dave, 2014. "Airline strategic alliances in overlapping markets: Should policymakers be concerned?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 243-256.
    13. Federico Ciliberto & Jonathan W. Williams, 2014. "Does multimarket contact facilitate tacit collusion? Inference on conduct parameters in the airline industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(4), pages 764-791, December.
    14. Kaukin, Andrey (Каукин, Андрей), 2018. "Diagnosis of the Growth Model of the Russian Air Transportation Market: Bottlenecks and Directions of Development [Диагностика Модели Роста Российского Рынка Авиаперевозок: Узкие Места И Направлени," Working Papers 061830, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    15. Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes, 2004. "Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 68-105, February.
    16. Steve Berry & Oliver B. Linton & Ariel Pakes, 2004. "Limit Theorems for Estimating the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand Systems," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 613-654.
    17. Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2008. "Estimation of Random Coefficient Demand Models: Challenges, Difficulties and Warnings," NBER Working Papers 14080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Somnath Das, 2019. "Effect of Merger on Market Price and Product Quality: American and US Airways," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 55(3), pages 339-374, November.
    19. Ivaldi, Marc & Zhang, Jiekai, 2020. "Platform Mergers: Lessons from a Case in the Digital TV Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 14895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Merger; Airlines; Network; Structural model; Nested logit; Airfare; Demand; Supply;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03800655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.