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Decarbonizing Air Transport : Insights from a Quasi-Experiment

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  • Abate, Megersa Abera
  • Barattieri, Alessandro
  • Brugnoli, Alberto
  • Porta, Flavio

Abstract

The US-China direct flights in mid-2023 were only 7 percent of those available in mid-2019. This quasi-experiment informs the debate on air transport de-carbonization. An estimated structural model shows that re-establishing the pre-pandemic direct connectivity could increase passengers by 387 percent and reduce prices by 63 percent. Moreover, due to the suppression of flights, carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 80 percent. A counterfactual exercise shows that maintaining pre-COVID connectivity and achieving the same emissions reduction through a market mechanism (i.e. offsetting), would have resulted in more passengers (+365 percent), lower prices (-60 percent), and lower reduction in consumer surplus (-40 percent) than observed in the post COVID-19 equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Abate, Megersa Abera & Barattieri, Alessandro & Brugnoli, Alberto & Porta, Flavio, 2025. "Decarbonizing Air Transport : Insights from a Quasi-Experiment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11183, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11183
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    File URL: https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099511408112528578/pdf/IDU-c074558a-1dba-4d86-a3e4-91ee9f6e66ae.pdf
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