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Does Merger Simulation Work? Evidence from the Swedish Analgesics Market

Author

Listed:
  • Jonas Björnerstedt
  • Frank Verboven

Abstract

We analyze a large merger in the Swedish market for analgesics (painkillers). The merging firms raised prices by 40 percent, and some outsiders raised prices by more than 10 percent. We confront these changes with predictions from a merger simulation model. With basic supply side assumptions, the models correctly or moderately underpredict the merging firms' price increase. However, they predict a larger price increase for the smaller firm, which was not the case in practice, and they underpredict the outsiders' responses. We consider several supply side explanations: a plausible cost increase after the merger and the possibility of partial collusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas Björnerstedt & Frank Verboven, 2016. "Does Merger Simulation Work? Evidence from the Swedish Analgesics Market," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 125-164, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:125-64
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/app.20130034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology; Plastics

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