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Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades

Author

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  • Oussama Houari

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

Abstract

The Global Financial Crisis revealed the complex and potentially negative impact of uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic and financial variables. In the academic literature, there is no consensus on the transmission mechanisms of this type of shock to the real economy. Using data from the US for the 1990–2018 period, we measure the effects of financial, macroeconomic and policy uncertainty shocks on a large panel of independent variables. Our results show that the heterogeneity of uncertainty measures plays an important role in assessing the evolution of the macroeconomic environment. In particular, high financial uncertainty disturbs financing conditions as the risk premium increases and pushes both households to raise savings and firms to postpone investments. In contrast, the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on precautionary savings and policy uncertainty on risk premiums are mostly insignificant, suggesting that there is a decoupling between policy uncertainty and financial market performance in the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Oussama Houari, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Post-Print hal-03723972, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03723972
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105762
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    Cited by:

    1. Pineda, Julián & Cortés, Lina M. & Perote, Javier, 2022. "Financial contagion drivers during recent global crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Bales, Stephan & Burghartz, Kaspar & Burghof, Hans-Peter & Hitz, Lukas, 2023. "Does the source of uncertainty matter? The impact of financial, newspaper and Twitter-based measures on U.S. banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Higgins, C. Richard, 2023. "Risk and Uncertainty: The Role of Financial Frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Drăgan, George Bogdan & Ben Arfi, Wissal & Tiberius, Victor & Ammari, Aymen, 2023. "Gravitating exogenous shocks to the next normal through entrepreneurial coopetive interactions: A PLS-SEM and fsQCA approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

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