IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03723972.html

Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades

Author

Listed:
  • Oussama Houari

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière [UR 13822] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

Abstract

The Global Financial Crisis revealed the complex and potentially negative impact of uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic and financial variables. In the academic literature, there is no consensus on the transmission mechanisms of this type of shock to the real economy. Using data from the US for the 1990–2018 period, we measure the effects of financial, macroeconomic and policy uncertainty shocks on a large panel of independent variables. Our results show that the heterogeneity of uncertainty measures plays an important role in assessing the evolution of the macroeconomic environment. In particular, high financial uncertainty disturbs financing conditions as the risk premium increases and pushes both households to raise savings and firms to postpone investments. In contrast, the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on precautionary savings and policy uncertainty on risk premiums are mostly insignificant, suggesting that there is a decoupling between policy uncertainty and financial market performance in the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Oussama Houari, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Post-Print hal-03723972, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03723972
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105762
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03723972v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03723972v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105762?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jones, Paul M. & Olson, Eric, 2013. "The time-varying correlation between uncertainty, output, and inflation: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 33-37.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom, 2013. "Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments," NBER Working Papers 19475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    4. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon‐Seung Huh & Adrian R. Pagan, 2016. "Econometric Methods for Modelling Systems With a Mixture of i(1) and i(0) Variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 892-911, August.
    5. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, December.
    7. Anamaria Illes & Marco Lombardi & Paul Mizen, 2015. "Why did bank lending rates diverge from policy rates after the financial crisis?," BIS Working Papers 486, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta & Sinha, Apra, 2021. "Is uncertainty the same everywhere? Advanced versus emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Kostka, Thomas & van Roye, Björn, 2017. "Assessing the Decoupling of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Conditions," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    10. Zhang, Dayong & Lei, Lei & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 47-56.
    11. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom, 2017. "Asset Return Dynamics under Habits and Bad Environment-Good Environment Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 713-760.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bales, Stephan & Burghartz, Kaspar & Burghof, Hans-Peter & Hitz, Lukas, 2023. "Does the source of uncertainty matter? The impact of financial, newspaper and Twitter-based measures on U.S. banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Mollick, André Varella, 2025. "Risk, uncertainty, world business cycles, and the U.S. stock-oil relationship," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    3. Luo, Jingru & Liu, Jingting & Alba, Joseph D. & Wang, Peiming, 2025. "The international spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty: Is it a dilemma or trilemma for monetary policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2026. "Uncertainty shocks and inflation: The role of credibility and expectation anchoring," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Ryan, Michael & Holmes, Mark J., 2025. "The effect of uncertainty on output: Instruments, identification, and the role of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Sun, Chentong & Yi, Shangkun & Wu, Fenglin & Li, Yanshuang & Dong, Zibing, 2025. "Mainshocks and aftershocks: Assessing the resilience of Asia-Pacific stock markets amid global financial cycle shocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Higgins, C. Richard, 2023. "Risk and Uncertainty: The Role of Financial Frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Pineda, Julián & Cortés, Lina M. & Perote, Javier, 2022. "Financial contagion drivers during recent global crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    10. Drăgan, George Bogdan & Ben Arfi, Wissal & Tiberius, Victor & Ammari, Aymen, 2023. "Gravitating exogenous shocks to the next normal through entrepreneurial coopetive interactions: A PLS-SEM and fsQCA approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Houari, Oussama, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    3. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    4. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta & Sinha, Apra, 2021. "Is uncertainty the same everywhere? Advanced versus emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Jungsuk Kim & Abhishek Kumar & Sushanta Mallick & Donghyun Park, 2024. "Financial uncertainty and interest rate movements: is Asian bond market volatility different?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 731-759, March.
    6. Segal, Gill, 2019. "A tale of two volatilities: Sectoral uncertainty, growth, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 110-140.
    7. Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 153-176, Spring.
    8. Istiak, Khandokar & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Risk, uncertainty, and leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-273.
    9. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    10. Hashem Pesaran & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1407, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The real effects of financial uncertainty shocks: A daily identification approach," Working Papers 61, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    12. Knut Are Aastveit & Gisle James Natvik & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Economic uncertainty and the effectiveness of monetary policy," Working Paper 2013/17, Norges Bank.
    13. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    14. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    15. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    16. Tran, Ly Thi Hai, 2025. "China's economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment in Southeast Asian economies: The role of trade connection and financial development," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    18. Yifan Wu & Ziang Qiu, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty and enterprise ESG performance: evidence from listed companies in China," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 52(4), pages 989-1014, December.
    19. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    20. Chris Redl, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 361-380, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03723972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.