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Global competition dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy under climate policies and peak oil: A behavioural model

Author

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  • Paolo Zeppini

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur)

  • Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh

Abstract

We develop a stochastic decision model to analyse the global competitive dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy. It describes coal, oil/gas, solar and wind. These differ not only in pollution intensities but also in profitability and innovation potential. The model accounts for the effect of learning curves, path-dependence and climate policies. Adoption shares endogenously affect agents' utility through increasing returns to adoption, learning, and a ‘peak oil’ capacity constraint. We find that peak oil induces a transition to coal rather than renewable energy, which worsens climate change. By introducing climate policies - such as a carbon tax, market adoption or R&D subsidies for renewables, and eliminating existing subsidies for fossil fuels - we identify potential transition patterns to a low-carbon energy system. Model analysis clarifies two main features of climate policies: which ones solve the climate problem, i.e. do not surpass the critical carbon budget; and how uncertain or variable are final market shares of energy sources.
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Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Zeppini & Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2020. "Global competition dynamics of fossil fuels and renewable energy under climate policies and peak oil: A behavioural model," Post-Print hal-02394882, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02394882
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110907
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02394882v1
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    22. Shantha Indrajith H. Liyanage & Fulu Godfrey Netswera & Abel Motsumi, 2021. "Insights from EU Policy Framework in Aligning Sustainable Finance for Sustainable Development in Africa and Asia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 459-470.
    23. Boulanouar, Zakaria & Essid, Lobna, 2023. "Extending the resource curse hypothesis to sustainability: Unveiling the environmental impacts of Natural resources rents and subsidies in Fossil Fuel-rich MENA Countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).

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