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Un modèle de conditionnalité ex ante de l'intervention multilaterale

  • Cécile Bastidon


    (LEAD - Laboratoire d'Économie Appliquée au Développement - UTLN - Université de Toulon)

This paper presents a model of IMF ex ante conditional lending (i.e. the commitment to higher bailouts in exchange for more pre-crisis effort in the part of the debtor). There are two kinds of foreign investments : short term (speculative) investments, and long term investments. Both the bailout and long term investments are linked to a quotation system, which reflects pre-crisis effort. Short term investments result from debtor moral hazard. In this model, ex ante conditionality is more effective than ex post conditionality with regards to safeguarding the Fund's resources, and preventing future crisis, despite of some persistence of debtor moral hazard, due to the importance of short term capital markets stabilisation.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00731610.

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Date of creation: 05 Jun 2003
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Publication status: Published in 20èmes Journées Internationales d'Economie Monétaire et Bancaire, GDR Economie Monétaire et Financière, Jun 2003, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00731610
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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Ruhl, Christof, 2001. "The bail-in problem: systematic goals, ad hoc means," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-32, March.
  2. Casella, Alessandra & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilization?," CEPR Discussion Papers 961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Ariel Rubinstein, 2010. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000000387, David K. Levine.
  4. Charles A. E. Goodhart & Haizhou Huang, 1999. "A model of the lender of last resort," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Fischer, Stanley, 1999. "Reforming the International Financial System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F557-76, November.
  6. Houba, Harold & Sneek, Koos & Vardy, Felix, 2000. "Can negotiations prevent fish wars?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1265-1280, July.
  7. Haizhou Huang & Charles Goodhart, 1999. "A Simple Model of an International Lender of Last Resort," FMG Discussion Papers dp336, Financial Markets Group.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall.
  9. C. A. E. Goodhart & H. Huang, 2000. "A Simple Model of an International Lender of Last Resort," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11, 02.
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