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Libéralisation financière et crises bancaires dans les pays émergents

  • Saoussen Ben Gamra

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) - Université Paris XIII - Paris Nord - CNRS : UMR7115)

  • Mickaël Clévenot

    ()

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (ancienne affiliation) - Université Paris XIII - Paris Nord - CNRS : UMR7115)

Depuis le début des années 1980, les économies de la périphérie, comme la plupart des économies de l'OCDE, ont mis en oeuvre un large processus de libéralisation financière. Les change-ments réalisés dans le mode de coordination liés à la libéralisation se sont accompagnés d'une forte instabilité bancaire qui révèle le rôle majeur joué par le contexte institutionnel et réglementaire dans la stabilité économique. L'objectif de ce papier est donc d'évaluer à partir des faits stylisés et de la mé-thode des Logit, l'effet d'une part de la libéralisation, mesurée par un indice synthétique et d'autre part, de la qualité de la structure institutionnelle et réglementaire et de leur mode de transformation sur la probabilité d'occurrence de crises bancaires dans un panel de 27 pays émergents sur la période (1980-2002). Les résultats obtenus soulignent bien l'importance du cadre institutionnel et au-delà le caractère systémique du changement institutionnel qui ne peut s'effectuer sans incident dès lors qu'il touche à un secteur aussi important de l'économie que le secteur bancaire.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series CEPN Working Papers with number hal-00188615.

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Date of creation: 19 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:hal-00188615
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