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Le choix d’un régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement peut-il être optimal en dehors des solutions bi-polaires ?


  • Jean-Pierre Allégret

    () (GATE, University of Lyon, CNRS, ENS-LSH, Centre Léon Bérard, France)

  • Mohamed Ayadi

    () (Université de Tunis, Institut supérieur de gestion (ISG))

  • Leila Haouaoui Khouni

    () (Université de Tunis, Institut supérieur de gestion (ISG))


This paper studies the choice of the exchange rate regime in emerging and developing countries. The literature on exchange rate regimes is often based either on theoretical models or on empirical analysis. Our paper presents a different perspective by developing a theoretical model which is tested empirically. We consider the main determinants of the exchange rate regime: the pass-through, the relative volatility of nominal and real shocks, the discretionary bias, the credit channel and the balance-sheet effect. The model is tested with a logit multinomial approach on a sample of 43 emerging and developing countries. We determine the probability of occurrence of a given exchange rate regime in taking into account the preceding determinants identified with the theoretical model. Overall, our results suggest that intermediate regimes are the regimes the best adapted to developing and emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Allégret & Mohamed Ayadi & Leila Haouaoui Khouni, 2008. "Le choix d’un régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement peut-il être optimal en dehors des solutions bi-polaires ?," Working Papers 0819, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:0819

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    5. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2001. "A note on the pass-through from exchange rate and foreign price changes to inflation in selected emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 69-81 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    7. Aizenman, Joshua & Frenkel, Jacob A, 1985. "Optimal Wage Indexation, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 402-423, June.
    8. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
    9. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Ayadi & Leila Haouaoui Khouni, 2007. "Volatilité des chocs et degré de flexibilité du taux de change," Post-Print halshs-00201227, HAL.
    10. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Aizenman, Joshua, 1982. "Aspects of the optimal management of exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3-4), pages 231-256, November.
    11. André Cartapanis & Vincent Dropsy, 2005. "Financial Vulnerability and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin American and Asian Emerging Countries: Towards New Criteria?," Chapters,in: Regional Currency Areas in Financial Globalization, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    13. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Nassirou, Aïchat, 2017. "Chocs macroéconomiques et intégration d’une union économique et monétaire: cas du Nigéria
      [Macroeconomic shocks and integration of an economic and monetary union: case of Nigeria]
      ," MPRA Paper 79167, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Exchange rate regimes; Emerging countries; Developing countries; Logit multinomial model;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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