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Le choix d'un régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement peut-il être optimal en dehors des solutions bi-polaires ?

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    ()

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Mohamed Ayadi

    ()

    (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - Université de Tunis)

  • Leila Haouaoui Khouni

    ()

    (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - Université de Tunis)

Cet article analyse le choix du régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement. Par rapport à la littérature existante, il s'en démarque en développant une approche à la fois théorique et empirique. Le modèle s'inscrit dans la littérature caractérisée par la détermination d'un indice d'intervention du taux de change. Les principaux facteurs présidents aux choix du régime de change optimal sont intégrés dans l'analyse, à savoir : le pass-through, la volatilité relative des chocs nominaux par rapport aux chocs réels, le biais discrétionnaire, le canal du crédit et l'effet bilan. Le modèle est testé empiriquement sur un échantillon de 43 pays émergents et en développement. Nous déterminons la probabilité d'occurrence d'un régime de change donné en prenant en compte les déterminants de notre modèle théorique. Nos résultats suggèrent que les régimes intermédiaires demeurent bien adaptés aux pays émergents et en développement.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00303718.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00303718
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  1. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Ayadi & Leila Haouaoui Khouni, 2007. "Volatilité des chocs et degré de flexibilité du taux de change," Post-Print halshs-00201227, HAL.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger & Iliana Reggio, 2002. "On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes," Business School Working Papers veintiuno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  4. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
  5. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  6. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Joshua Aizenman & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1984. "Optimal Wage Indexation, Foreign-Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jacob A. Frenkel & Joshua Aizenman, 1981. "Aspects of the Optimal Management of Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
  12. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2001. "A note on the pass-through from exchange rate and foreign price changes to inflation in selected emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 69-81 Bank for International Settlements.
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