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Le choix d'un régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement peut-il être optimal en dehors des solutions bi-polaires ?

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    ()

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Mohamed Ayadi

    ()

    (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - Université de Tunis)

  • Leila Haouaoui Khouni

    ()

    (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - Université de Tunis)

This paper studies the choice of the exchange rate regime in emerging and developing countries. The literature on exchange rate regimes is often based either on theoretical models or on empirical analysis. Our paper presents a different perspective by developing a theoretical model which is tested empirically. We consider the main determinants of the exchange rate regime: the pass-through, the relative volatility of nominal and real shocks, the discretionary bias, the credit channel and the balance-sheet effect. The model is tested with a logit multinomial approach on a sample of 43 emerging and developing countries. We determine the probability of occurrence of a given exchange rate regime in taking into account the preceding determinants identified with the theoretical model. Overall, our results suggest that intermediate regimes are the regimes the best adapted to developing and emerging countries.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published in Working paper GATE 08-19. 2008
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00303718
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  1. Reggio, Iliana & Sturzenegger, Federico & Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo, 2009. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," UC3M Working papers. Economics we098374, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  2. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2001. "A note on the pass-through from exchange rate and foreign price changes to inflation in selected emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 69-81 Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Aizenman, Joshua, 1982. "Aspects of the optimal management of exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3-4), pages 231-256, November.
  5. Joshua Aizenman & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1984. "Optimal Wage Indexation, Foreign-Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Michael W. Klein & Nancy P. Marion, 1994. "Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs," NBER Working Papers 4651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. André Cartapanis & Vincent Dropsy, 2005. "Financial Vulnerability and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin American and Asian Emerging Countries: Towards New Criteria?," Chapters, in: Regional Currency Areas in Financial Globalization, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  10. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Ayadi & Leila Haouaoui Khouni, 2007. "Volatilité des chocs et degré de flexibilité du taux de change," Post-Print halshs-00201227, HAL.
  12. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
  13. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
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