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Le choix d'un régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement peut-il être optimal en dehors des solutions bipolaires ?

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret
  • Mohamed Ayadi
  • Leila Haouaoui Khouni

This paper studies the choice of the exchange rate regime in emerging and developing countries. Our model extends the approach proposed by Aizenman and Hausmann [2001] in order to introduce the main determinants of the exchange rate regime choice. The model is tested with a multinomial logit approach on a sample including emerging and developing countries. We determine the probability of occurrence of a given exchange rate regime by taking into account the determinants from the theoretical model. Overall, our results suggest that intermediate regimes remain well adapted to developing and emerging countries. Classification JEL�: F33�; F41

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 62 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 133-162

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Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_622_0133
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  2. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1984. "Optimal Wage Indexation, Foreign-Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger & Iliana Reggio, 2002. "On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes," Business School Working Papers veintiuno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
  8. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2001. "A note on the pass-through from exchange rate and foreign price changes to inflation in selected emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 69-81 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Aizenman, Joshua, 1982. "Aspects of the optimal management of exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3-4), pages 231-256, November.
  10. André Cartapanis & Vincent Dropsy, 2005. "Financial Vulnerability and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin American and Asian Emerging Countries: Towards New Criteria?," Chapters, in: Regional Currency Areas in Financial Globalization, chapter 5 Edward Elgar.
  11. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Ayadi & Leila Haouaoui Khouni, 2007. "Volatilité des chocs et degré de flexibilité du taux de change," Post-Print halshs-00201227, HAL.
  12. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
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