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Exchange rate misalignment in Pakistan and its general equilibrium distributional implications:

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  • Debowicz, Dario
  • Saeed, Wajiha

Abstract

Recent findings in the growth literature suggest that developing countries need to keep a devalued exchange rate to stimulate their economic growth. Building on these findings, we econometrically evaluate to what ex-tent the real exchange rate of Pakistan has been aligned with its economic fundamentals, and find that the Pa-kistan rupee has been significantly and systematically overvalued during the last years. We then simulate the general equilibrium effects of an eventual re-alignment of the real exchange rate with economic fundamen-tals, and find not only an expected increase in the relative size of the tradable sector - where productivity in-creases tend to be faster – but also an associated improvement in the income of the poorest groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Debowicz, Dario & Saeed, Wajiha, 2014. "Exchange rate misalignment in Pakistan and its general equilibrium distributional implications:," PSSP working papers 16, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:psspwp:16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk Willenbockel, "undated". "Structural Effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: a CGE Assessment," EcoMod2006 272100102, EcoMod.
    2. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 213-234..
    3. Fuzhi Cheng & David Orden, 2007. "Exchange rate alignment and producer support estimates (PSEs) for India," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 36(2), pages 233-243, March.
    4. Zulfiqar Hyder & Adil Mahboob, 2006. "Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 237-263..
    5. Debowicz, Dario & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robinson, Sherman & Haider, Syed Hamza, 2012. "A 2007-08 social accounting matrix for Pakistan:," PSSP working papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; exchange rate; trade; Markets; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model;

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