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Structural Effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: a CGE Assessment

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  • Dirk Willenbockel

Abstract

The misalignment of the Chinese currency exposed by the rapid build-up of China’s foreign exchange reserves over the past few years has been the subject of considerable recent debate. Recent econometric studies suggest a Renminbi undervaluation on the order of 10 to 30%. The modest revaluation of July 2005 is widely perceived as insufficient to correct China’s balance-of-payments disequilibrium and has not silenced charges that China is engaging in persistent one-sided currency manipulation. Within China there are widespread concerns regarding the adverse employment effects of a major revaluation on labour-intensive export sectors, yet the likely magnitude of these effects remains a controversial issue. The paper aims to shed light on this question by simulating the structural effects of a real exchange rate revaluation that lowers the current account surplus-GDP by 4 percentage-points using a 17-sector computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy.
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  • Dirk Willenbockel, 2006. "Structural Effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: a CGE Assessment," EcoMod2006 272100102, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:002721:272100102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Whalley, John & Wang, Li, 2011. "The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trade flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 614-621, January.
    5. John Whalley & Li Wang, 2007. "Evaluating the Impure Chinese VAT Relative to a Pure Form in a Simple Monetary Trade Model with an Endogenous Trade Surplus," NBER Working Papers 13581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Darío Debowicz & Wajiha Saeed, 2014. "Exchange rate misalignment and economic development: the case of Pakistan," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 21014, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    7. Meng, Sam, 2015. "Modeling the impact of exchange rates using a multicurrency framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-231.
    8. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, "undated". "The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Chinese Currency Appreciation On China And The Rest Of The World: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125010, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Meng, Xianming & Siriwardana, Mahinda & McNeill, Judith, 2013. "The Impact of an Appreciation of the Chinese Yuan on the Global Trade," Conference papers 332340, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Hakeem Eltalla, 2013. "Devaluation and Output Growth in Palestine: Evidence from a CGE model," European Journal of Business and Economics, Central Bohemia University, vol. 8(4), pages 4221:8-4221, May.
    11. He, Y.X. & Zhang, S.L. & Yang, L.Y. & Wang, Y.J. & Wang, J., 2010. "Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6629-6637, November.
    12. Debowicz, Darío & Saeed, Wajiha, 2014. "Exchange rate misalignment in Pakistan and its general equilibrium distributional implications," PSSP working papers 16, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Dong Yan & Whalley John, 2011. "Model Structure and the Combined Welfare and Trade Effects of China's Trade Related Policies," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, January.
    14. LU Chuanyi & CHEN Wenying, 2022. "Scenario of China Reaching Carbon Peaking ahead of Schedule and Its Effect on Macro Economy," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 17(2), pages 212244-2122, June.
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    16. Bliss, Christopher, 2007. "Trade, Growth, and Inequality," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199204649.
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    19. He, Yongxiu & Liu, Yangyang & Wang, Jianhui & Xia, Tian & Zhao, Yushan, 2014. "Low-carbon-oriented dynamic optimization of residential energy pricing in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 610-623.
    20. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2013. "Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1029-1042.

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    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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