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Security analysis for agroterrorism: applying the threat, vulnerability, consequence framework to developing countries

Author

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  • Linacre, Nicholas A.
  • Koo, Bonwoo
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.
  • Msangi, Siwa
  • Falck-Zepeda, José
  • Gaskell, Joanne
  • Komen, John
  • Cohen, Marc J.
  • Birner, Regina

Abstract

"We examine access to, use of, and participation in decisions on improved water supply in the Volta basin of Ghana, one of the first countries to introduce a community-based approach to rural water supply on a large scale. While 71 percent of the households interviewed have access to improved water, 43 percent of these continue to use unsafe sources as their main domestic water source. Our results indicate that quality perceptions and opportunity costs play an important role in households' choice of water source. The effect of prices and income levels on this choice differs according to the pricing system used. Given that supply characteristics such as the location and pricing system affect household decisions to use the improved source, households may try to influence these characteristics in their favor during the community decision-making process for the improved source. However, less than 40 percent of the households interviewed participated in decisions on location or technology. We argue that the decision whether to participate depends on three main factors: (i) the household's bargaining power, (ii) the potential benefits from influencing outcomes, and (iii) the cost of participation, (mainly opportunity cost of time). Our results indicate that bargaining power matters In some developing countries the potential exists for agroterrorism to cause widespread disruption through loss of sustenance, income and production. Defense of agriculture may also be problematic because of the lack stability and basic biosecurity infrastructure for the detection and prevention of diseases or invasive species. Currently new methodological approaches for terrorism risk assessments are being actively explored for resource prioritization. One such methodology for risk based allocation of resources is Threat, Vulnerability, and Consequence (TVC) Analysis. A qualitative application of the TVC framework is used to analyze the risk of agroterrorism in developing countries relative to industrialized countries. The analysis suggests that evidence exists to demonstrate general terrorist threats, vulnerability of agriculture and, depending on the country, potentially serious consequences arising from argoterrorism. Where specific threats emerge, action may be needed by the international community to strengthen biosecurity systems in developing countries through: increasing global cooperation, capacity building in monitoring, remediation and risk analysis technologies, and the dissemination of novel technologies for control of pests and diseases." Authors' Abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Linacre, Nicholas A. & Koo, Bonwoo & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Msangi, Siwa & Falck-Zepeda, José & Gaskell, Joanne & Komen, John & Cohen, Marc J. & Birner, Regina, 2005. "Security analysis for agroterrorism: applying the threat, vulnerability, consequence framework to developing countries," EPTD discussion papers 138, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:eptddp:138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Unnevehr, Laurian J., ed., 2003. "Food safety in food security and food trade:," 2020 vision focus 10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Atanassov, Atanas & Bahieldin, Ahmed & Brink, Johan & Burachik, Moises & Cohen, Joel I. & Dhawan, Vibha & Ebora, Reynaldo V. & Falck-Zepeda, José & Herrera-Estrella, Luis & Komen, John & Chon Low, Fee, 2004. "To reach the poor: results from the ISNAR-IFPRI Next Harvest study on genetically modified crops, public research, and policy implications," EPTD discussion papers 116, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Zhang, Xiaobo, 2004. "Security is like oxygen," DSGD discussion papers 6, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2003. "Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    5. Pinstrup-Andersen, Per & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1999. "World food prospects," Food policy reports 9, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Falck Zepeda, José & Barreto-Triana, Nancy & Baquero-Haeberlin, Irma & Espitia-Malagón, Eduardo & Fierro-Guzmán, Humberto & López, Nancy, 2006. "An exploration of the potential benefits of integrated pest management systems and the use of insect resistant potatoes to control the Guatemalan Tuber Moth (Tecia solanivora Povolny) in Ventaquemada,," EPTD discussion papers 152, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Linacre, Nicholas & Falck-Zepeda, José & Komen, John & MacLaren, Donald, 2006. "Risk assessment and management of genetically modified organisms under Australia's Gene Technology Act:," EPTD discussion papers 157, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Gruère, Guillaume & Giuliani, Alessandra & Smale, Melinda, 2006. "Marketing underutilized plant species for the benefit of the poor: a conceptual framework," EPTD discussion papers 154, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Di Falco, Salvatore & Chavas, Jean-Paul & Smale, Melinda, 2006. "Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat genetic diversity in Tigray Region, Ethiopia," EPTD discussion papers 153, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Smale, Melinda & Zambrano, Patricia & Falck-Zepeda, José & Gruère, Guillaume, 2006. "Parables: applied economics literature about the impact of genetically engineered crop varieties in developing economies," EPTD discussion papers 158, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capacity strengthening; Water-supply Management; Agroterrorism; Biosecurity; Risk analysis; resource allocation; Terrorism; Governance;

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