IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fir/econom/wp2021_03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aggregate Output Measurements: a Common Trend Approach

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We analyze a model for N different measurements of a persistent latent time series when measurement errors are mean-reverting, which implies a common trend among measure-ments. We study the consequences of overdifferencing, finding potentially large biases in maximum likelihood estimators of the dynamics parameters and reductions in the preci-sion of smoothed estimates of the latent variable, especially for multiperiod objects such as quinquennial growth rates. We also develop an R 2 measure of common trend observability that determines the severity of misspecification. Finally, we apply our framework to US quarterly data on GDP and GDI, obtaining an improved aggregate output measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Almuzara & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2021. "Aggregate Output Measurements: a Common Trend Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  • Handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2021_03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://local.disia.unifi.it/wp_disia/2021/wp_disia_2021_03.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021-02
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, 2011. "Is GDP or GDI a better measure of output? A statistical approach," BEA Working Papers 0076, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    2. Honoré,Bo & Pakes,Ariel & Piazzesi,Monika & Samuelson,Larry (ed.), 2017. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316510520.
    3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, October.
    4. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Galesi, Alessandro & Sentana, Enrique, 2018. "A spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 249-279.
    5. Weale, Martin, 1992. "Estimation of Data Measured with Error and Subject to Linear Restrictions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 167-174, April-Jun.
    6. Honoré,Bo & Pakes,Ariel & Piazzesi,Monika & Samuelson,Larry (ed.), 2017. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108400022.
    7. Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Steven E. Satchell, 1998. "Measurement Error with Accounting Constraints: Point and Interval Estimation for Latent Data with an Application to U.K. Gross Domestic Product," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 109-134.
    8. Honoré,Bo & Pakes,Ariel & Piazzesi,Monika & Samuelson,Larry (ed.), 2017. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108400008.
    9. Martín Almuzara & Dante Amengual & Enrique Sentana, 2019. "Normality tests for latent variables," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), pages 981-1017, July.
    10. Honoré,Bo & Pakes,Ariel & Piazzesi,Monika & Samuelson,Larry (ed.), 2017. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108414982.
    11. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2021. "Tests for random coefficient variation in vector autoregressive models," Working Papers wp2021_2108, CEMFI.
    2. Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Samad Sarferaz & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Simon van Norden, 2022. "Can GDP Measurement Be Further Improved? Data Revision and Reconciliation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 423-431, January.
    3. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2021. "Employment Reconciliation and Nowcasting," Working Papers 2021-007, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nizar Allouch, 2017. "Aggregation in Networks," Studies in Economics 1718, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. Pablo Guillen & Róbert F. Veszteg, 2021. "Strategy-proofness in experimental matching markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 650-668, June.
    3. Yann Bramoullé & Habiba Djebbari & Bernard Fortin, 2020. "Peer Effects in Networks: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 603-629, August.
    4. Guido M. Kuersteiner & Ingmar R. Prucha, 2020. "Dynamic Spatial Panel Models: Networks, Common Shocks, and Sequential Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(5), pages 2109-2146, September.
    5. Jungbin Hwang & Gonzalo Valdés, 2020. "Low Frequency Cointegrating Regression in the Presence of Local to Unity Regressors and Unknown Form of Serial Dependence," Working papers 2020-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2020.
    6. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa, 2021. "Robust Bayesian Inference for Set‐Identified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1519-1556, July.
    8. Francesca Molinari, 2020. "Microeconometrics with Partial Identi?cation," CeMMAP working papers CWP15/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Liza Charroin, 2018. "Homophily, peer effects and dishonesty," Post-Print halshs-01993618, HAL.
    10. Crawford, Vincent P., 2021. "Efficient mechanisms for level-k bilateral trading," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 80-101.
    11. Vitor Possebom, 2021. "Crime and Mismeasured Punishment: Marginal Treatment Effect with Misclassification," Papers 2106.00536, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    12. Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Välimäki, 2019. "Dynamic Mechanism Design: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 235-274, June.
    13. Chen, Mingli & Fernández-Val, Iván & Weidner, Martin, 2021. "Nonlinear factor models for network and panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 296-324.
    14. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Matthew Read, 2021. "Identification and Inference Under Narrative Restrictions," Papers 2102.06456, arXiv.org.
    15. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2020. "The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions," Working Papers 2030, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Alaa Abi Morshed & Elena Andreou & Otilia Boldea, 2018. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-39, May.
    17. Lawford, Steve & Mehmeti, Yll, 2020. "Cliques and a new measure of clustering: With application to U.S. domestic airlines," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    18. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    19. Áureo de Paula, 2020. "Econometric Models of Network Formation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 775-799, August.
    20. González, Felipe, 2020. "Collective action in networks: Evidence from the Chilean student movement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; GDP; GDI; Overdifferencing; Signal Extraction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fir:econom:wp2021_03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsfirit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabrizio Cipollini (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsfirit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.