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The Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery

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Abstract

We study how random variation in the availability of highly educated, foreign-born workers impacts firm performance and recruitment behavior. We combine two rich data sources: 1) administrative employer-employee matched data from the US Census Bureau; and 2) firm-level information on the first large-scale H-1B visa lottery in 2007. Using an event-study approach, we find that lottery wins lead to increases in firm hiring of college-educated, immigrant labor along with increases in scale and survival. These effects are stronger for small, skill-intensive, and high-productivity firms that participate in the lottery. We do not find evidence for displacement of native-born, college-educated workers at the firm level, on net. However, this result masks dynamics among more specific subgroups of incumbents that we further elucidate.

Suggested Citation

  • Agostina Brinatti & Mingyu Chen & Parag Mahajan & Nicolas Morales & Kevin Shih, 2024. "The Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery," Working Paper 24-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:98171
    DOI: 10.21144/wp24-04
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    1. Andreas Beerli & Jan Ruffner & Michael Siegenthaler & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "The Abolition of Immigration Restrictions and the Performance of Firms and Workers: Evidence from Switzerland," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 976-1012, March.
    2. Kirk Doran & Alexander Gelber & Adam Isen, 2022. "The Effects of High-Skilled Immigration Policy on Firms: Evidence from Visa Lotteries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(10), pages 2501-2533.
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    8. Takao Kato & Chad Sparber, 2013. "Quotas and Quality: The Effect of H-1B Visa Restrictions on the Pool of Prospective Undergraduate Students from Abroad," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 109-126, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silliman, Mikko & Willén, Alexander, 2024. "Worker Power, Immigrant Sorting, and Firm Dynamics," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 13/2024, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Amy Nice, 2024. "Meeting US Defense Science and Engineering Workforce Needs: A Progress Report," NBER Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 4, pages 179-215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kauhanen, Antti & DeVaro, Jed, 2024. "Economic Impacts of High-Skilled Immigration," ETLA Brief 141, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Francis M. Dillon & Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr & Andrew J. Wang, 2025. "Positioned at Extremes: Future Job Placements of Immigrant Students at U.S. Colleges," NBER Working Papers 34440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mandelman, Federico & Mehra, Mishita & Shen, Hewei, 2025. "Skilled immigration frictions as a barrier for young firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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