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Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Ran Abramitzky
  • Leah Boustan
  • Ahmet Gulek
  • Jens Hainmueller

Abstract

We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999--2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.

Suggested Citation

  • Ran Abramitzky & Leah Boustan & Ahmet Gulek & Jens Hainmueller, 2026. "Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26213, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26213
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreas Beerli & Jan Ruffner & Michael Siegenthaler & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "The Abolition of Immigration Restrictions and the Performance of Firms and Workers: Evidence from Switzerland," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 976-1012, March.
    2. Mayda, Anna Maria & Ortega, Francesc & Peri, Giovanni & Shih, Kevin & Sparber, Chad, 2018. "The effect of the H-1B quota on the employment and selection of foreign-born labor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 105-128.
    3. Christian K. Wolf, 2023. "The Missing Intercept: A Demand Equivalence Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2232-2269, August.
    4. Mahajan, Parag & Morales, Nicolas & Shih, Kevin Y. & Chen, Mingyu & Brinatti, Agostina, 2024. "The Impact of Immigration on Firms and Workers: Insights from the H-1B Lottery," IZA Discussion Papers 16917, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Charles R. Hulten, 1978. "Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 45(3), pages 511-518.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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