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How does multinational production change international comovement?

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  • Silvio Contessi

Abstract

I study the aggregate implications of the entry of Multinational Firms (MNFs) in a two country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in which firms have heterogeneous productivity in the sense of Ghironi and Melitz (2005). Unlike the extant open economy macroeconomics literature, this model endogenizes both multinational production and exports as possible strategies of internationalization of production, a feature that substantially improves the match between model-simulated moments and business cycle data along two dimensions. First, once I allow for concurrent entry (and exit) of MNFs and exporters over the business cycle, the consumption output anomaly disappears and I can successfully replicate the ranking of cross-country correlations of output and consumption found in the data. Second, I show that the model with heterogeneous MNFs is capable of bringing the simulated volatility of the Real Exchange Rate much closer to the data than previous models with either representative or heterogeneous exporters.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvio Contessi, 2010. "How does multinational production change international comovement?," Working Papers 2010-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2010-041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
    2. Chiara Criscuolo & Ralf Martin, 2009. "Multinationals and U.S. Productivity Leadership: Evidence from Great Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 263-281, May.
    3. Claudia M. Buch & Alexander Lipponer, 2005. "Business Cycles and FDI: Evidence from German Sectoral Data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(4), pages 732-759, December.
    4. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    5. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan & Szeidl, Adam, 2006. "Optimal integration strategies for the multinational firm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 216-238, September.
    6. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    7. Paul Bergin & Robert Feenstra, 2006. "Outsourcing and Volatility," Working Papers 628, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    8. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 8, pages 211-248 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Deborah L. Swenson, 2004. "Foreign Investment and the Mediation of Trade Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 609-629, September.
    10. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. George Alessandria, 2005. "Consumer search, price dispersion, and international relative price volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cacciatore, Matteo, 2014. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 17-30.
    2. repec:oup:qjecon:v:132:y:2017:i:2:p:921-962. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Contessi, Silvio, 2015. "Multinational firms׳ entry and productivity: Some aggregate implications of firm-level heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 61-80.
    4. Javier Cravino & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2017. "Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(2), pages 921-962.
    5. Zlate, Andrei, 2016. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 34-49.

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    Keywords

    Business cycles ; International business enterprises;

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