IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/101696.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Negative Correlation between Stock and Futures Returns: An Unexploited Hedging Opportunity?

Author

Listed:
  • Parantap Basu
  • William T. Gavin

Abstract

The negative correlation between equity and commodity futures returns is widely perceived by investors as an unexploited hedging opportunity. A Lucas (1982) asset-pricing model is adapted to analyze the fundamentals driving equity and commodity futures returns. Using the model we argue that such a negative correlation could arise as an equilibrium relationship which reflects traders' perceptions about the shocks driving the fundamentals such as energy and consumables, and does not necessarily indicate any hedging opportunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Parantap Basu & William T. Gavin, 2011. "Negative Correlation between Stock and Futures Returns: An Unexploited Hedging Opportunity?," Working Papers 2011-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:101696
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2011.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2011.005
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20955/wp.2011.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    2. Claude B. Erb & Campbell R. Harvey, 2015. "The Strategic and Tactical Value of Commodity Futures," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 6, pages 125-178, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haarstad, Aleksander H. & Lavrutich, Maria & Strypet, Kristian & Strøm, Eivind, 2022. "Multi-commodity price risk hedging in the Atlantic salmon farming industry," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    2. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Jan), pages 49-66.
    3. Parantap Basu & William T. Gavin, 2011. "What explains the growth in commodity derivatives?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Jan), pages 37-48.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dirk Steffen & Ingo Pitterle, 2004. "Spillover Effects of Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 286, Econometric Society.
    2. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2015. "Euro area, oil and global shocks: An empirical model-based analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 295-314.
    3. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    4. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Niepelt, Dirk, 2019. "On the equivalence of private and public money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 27-41.
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Jyh-Lin Wu, 1994. "Fiscal announcements and real exchange rate dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 177-190, March.
    10. Melone, Alessandro & Randl, Otto & Sögner, Leopold & Zechner, Josef, 2025. "Stock-Oil Comovement: Cash Flows or Discount Rates?," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325398, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Carsten Detken & Philipp Hartmann, 2000. "The Euro and International Capital Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-94, April.
    12. Coenen, Günter & Lozej, Matija & Priftis, Romanos, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: An assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Yazid Dissou & Lilia Karnizova & Qian Sun, 2015. "Industry-level Econometric Estimates of Energy-Capital-Labor Substitution with a Nested CES Production Function," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 107-121, March.
    14. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "Monetary-based models of the exchange rate: a panel perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, January.
    15. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Fanny Henriet & Yannick Kalantzis & Matthieu Lemoine & Noëmie Lisack & Harri Turunen, 2025. "Bridging the Gap in Macroeconomic Analysis of the Energy Transition: Combining Medium-and Long-Term Approaches," Working papers 1000, Banque de France.
    17. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    18. Leonardo Bartolini & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2001. "Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 518-530, August.
    19. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "International Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 16630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Tariffs and asset market structure: some basic comparative dynamics," Working Papers 1995-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:101696. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.