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The Strategic and Tactical Value of Commodity Futures

In: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS

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  • Claude B. Erb
  • Campbell R. Harvey

Abstract

Investors face numerous challenges when seeking to estimate the prospective performance of a long-only investment in commodity futures. For instance, historically, the average annualized excess return of the average individual commodity futures has been approximately zero and commodity futures returns have been largely uncorrelated with one another. The prospective annualized excess return of a rebalanced portfolio of commodity futures, however, can be “equity-like.“ Some security characteristics (such as the term structure of futures prices) and some portfolio strategies have historically been rewarded with above-average returns. It is important to avoid naive extrapolation of historical returns and to strike a balance between dependable sources of return and possible sources of return.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude B. Erb & Campbell R. Harvey, 2015. "The Strategic and Tactical Value of Commodity Futures," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 6, pages 125-178, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789814566926_0006
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramesh, Shietal & Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Faff, Robert, 2025. "Modelling time-varying volatility spillovers across crises: Evidence from major commodity futures and the US stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Nakagawa, Kei & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2024. "Commodity sectors and factor investment strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    3. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    4. Ping Wei & Jingzi Zhou & Xiaohang Ren & Luu Duc Toan Huynh, 2025. "Financialisation of the European Union Emissions Trading System and its influencing factors in quantiles," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 925-940, January.
    5. Höfler, Markus & Schertler, Andrea, 2024. "Financial integration and hedging and safe haven properties of metals for sovereign bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Li, Yan & Liu, Qingfu & Miao, Deyu & Tse, Yiuman, 2024. "Return seasonality in commodity futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 448-462.
    7. Steinbach, Sandro & Yildirim, Yasin, 2024. "Grain Futures Market Response to the Black Sea Grain Initiative," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 73(2), May.
    8. Amar, Amine Ben & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Hanxiong Zhang & Andrew Urquhart, 2020. "Do momentum and reversal strategies work in commodity futures? A comprehensive study," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 375-409, April.
    10. Iwanaga, Yasuhiro & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2024. "Cross-momentum strategies in the equity futures and currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    11. Bhattacherjee, Purba & Mishra, Sibanjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme time-frequency connectedness across U.S. sector stock and commodity futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1176-1197.
    12. Shuo YANG, 2025. "Identifying Multiple Bubbles and Time-Varying Contagion Effect between Iron Ore and China's Stock Markets: A New Recursive Evolving Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-100, April.
    13. Rad, Hossein & Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Miffre, Joëlle & Faff, Robert, 2023. "The commodity risk premium and neural networks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Jonathan A. Batten & Peter G. Szilagyi & Wagner, 2015. "Should emerging market investors buy commodities?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(39), pages 4228-4246, August.
    15. Marco Taboga, 2024. "The potential macroeconomic relevance of critical materials: some preliminary evidence," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 897, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Fan, John Hua & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Indriawan, Ivan & Todorova, Neda, 2024. "When Chinese mania meets global frenzy: Commodity price bubbles," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    17. Tapia-Griñen, Pablo & Pastén-Henríquez, Boris & Sepúlveda-Velásquez, Jorge, 2025. "Earthquakes in Chile and Peru: How are they reflected in the copper financial market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Kongsheng Zhang & Xiaorui Xu & Mingtao Zhao, 2025. "Risk Spillover Effect from Oil to Chinese New-Energy-Related Stock Markets: An R-vine Copula-Based CoVaR Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-19, June.
    19. Kerstin Lamert & Benjamin R. Auer & Ralf Wunderlich, 2025. "Discretization of continuous-time arbitrage strategies in financial markets with fractional Brownian motion," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 101(2), pages 163-218, April.
    20. Najaf Iqbal & Elie Bouri & Oksana Grebinevych & David Roubaud, 2023. "Modelling extreme risk spillovers in the commodity markets around crisis periods including COVID19," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 305-334, November.
    21. Ayesha Sayed & Christo Auret, 2025. "Is corn still king? Unravelling time-varying interactions among soft commodities," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(1), pages 259-284, March.
    22. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2024. "Revisiting the interdependences across global base metal futures markets: Evidence during the main waves of the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).

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