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Negative Correlation Between Stock And Futures Returns: An Unexploited Hedging Opportunity?

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  • Parantap Basu
  • William T. Gavin

Abstract

In this paper we ask whether or not recent explosive growth in commodity derivative trading, both over the counter and on organized exchanges, represents a new us of these derivatives as an asset class to exploit a previously unrecognized hedge for business cycle risk as claimed by Gorton and Rowenhorst (2006) using data from 1959 through 2004. We use a Lucas tree model to show that the negative correlation reported by Gorton and Rowenhorst between commodity future returns and real output growth is likely an equilibrium condition and should not be evidence of an unexploited hedging opportunity.
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  • Parantap Basu & William T. Gavin, 2017. "Negative Correlation Between Stock And Futures Returns: An Unexploited Hedging Opportunity?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 209-215, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:69:y:2017:i:3:p:209-215
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/boer.2017.69.issue-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    2. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    3. Claude B. Erb & Campbell R. Harvey, 2015. "The Strategic and Tactical Value of Commodity Futures," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 6, pages 125-178, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Haarstad, Aleksander H. & Lavrutich, Maria & Strypet, Kristian & Strøm, Eivind, 2022. "Multi-commodity price risk hedging in the Atlantic salmon farming industry," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    2. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Jan), pages 49-66.
    3. Parantap Basu & William T. Gavin, 2011. "What explains the growth in commodity derivatives?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Jan), pages 37-48.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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