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Happiness maintenance and asset prices

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Abstract

This paper constructs a simple dynamic asset pricing model which incorporates recent evidence on the influence of immediate emotions on risk preferences. Investors derive direct utility from both consumption and financial wealth and, consistent with the happiness maintenance feature documented by Isen (1999) and others, become more cautious toward their wealth in good times. Mild pro-cyclical changes in risk aversion over wealth cause large pro-cyclical fluctuations in the current price-dividend ratio which, due to general equilibrium restrictions, translate into counter-cyclical variation in the current consumption-wealth ratio and, in turn, in expected future returns. With a realistic consumption growth process and reasonable preference parameters, the model generates a sizable equity premium, a low and stable risk-free rate, volatile and predictable stock returns, and price-dividend and Sharpe ratios in line with the data.

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  • Antonio Falato, 2008. "Happiness maintenance and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-19
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    Cited by:

    1. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Giannikos, Christos & Guirguis, Hany, 2004. "On the consequences of state dependent preferences for the pricing of financial assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 143-153, September.
    2. Falato, Antonio, 2009. "Happiness maintenance and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1247-1262, June.
    3. Pascal St-Amour, 2004. "Ratchet vs Blasé Investors and Asset Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-11, CIRANO.
    4. Pascal St-Amour, 2005. "Direct Preference Wealth in Aggregate Household Portfolios," FAME Research Paper Series rp136, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    5. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta & Palma, Alessia & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Are markets in happier countries less affected by tragic events? Evidence from market reaction to the Israel–Hamas conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Shu, Hui-Chu, 2010. "Investor mood and financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 267-282, November.
    7. Dominique Pépin & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "The Time-Varying Nature of Risk Aversion: Evidence from 60 Years of U.S. Stock Market Data," Working papers 2020-09, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    8. Pascal St-Amour, 2005. "Direct Preference for Wealth in Aggregate Household Portfolio," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 05.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    9. Văn, Lê & Bảo, Nguyễn Khắc Quốc, 2022. "The relationship between global stock and precious metals under Covid-19 and happiness perspectives," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Berrada, Tony & Detemple, Jérôme & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2018. "Asset pricing with beliefs-dependent risk aversion and learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 504-534.
    11. John Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2007. "Risk Based Explanations of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 13220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Alexander Porshnev & Valeria Lakshina & Ilya Redkin, 2016. "Could Emotional Markers in Twitter Posts Add Information to the Stock Market Armax-Garch Model," HSE Working papers WP BRP 54/FE/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    13. Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Xue, Mei & Zhang, Wei, 2017. "Daily happiness and stock returns: The case of Chinese company listed in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 496-501.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Uncertainty; Financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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