IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddwp/1701.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The U.S. economy has long relied on immigrant workers, many of them unauthorized, yet estimates of the inflow of unauthorized workers and the determinants of that inflow are hard to come by. This paper provides estimates of the number of newly arriving unauthorized workers from Mexico, the principal source of unauthorized immigrants to the United States, and examines how the inflow is related to U.S. and Mexico economic conditions. Our estimates suggest that annual inflows of unauthorized workers averaged about 170,000 during 1996-2014 but were much higher before the economic downturn that began in 2007. Labor market conditions in the U.S. and Mexico play key roles in this migrant flow. The models estimated here predict that annual unauthorized inflows from Mexico will be about 100,000 in the future if recent economic conditions persist, and higher if the U.S. economy booms or the Mexican economy weakens.

Suggested Citation

  • Orrenius, Pia M. & Zavodny, Madeline, 2017. "Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios," Working Papers 1701, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1701
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1701
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/papers/2017/wp1701.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Cynthia Bansak, 2014. "Employment Verification Mandates And The Labor Market Outcomes Of Likely Unauthorized And Native Workers," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 671-680, July.
    2. Antonio Spilimbergo & Gordon H. Hanson, 1999. "Illegal Immigration, Border Enforcement, and Relative Wages: Evidence from Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico Border," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1337-1357, December.
    3. Sarah Bohn & Magnus Lofstrom & Steven Raphael, 2014. "Did the 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act Reduce the State's Unauthorized Immigrant Population?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 258-269, May.
    4. Gordon H. Hanson, 2006. "Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 869-924, December.
    5. Pia Orrenius, 2014. "Enforcement and illegal migration," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-81, June.
    6. James D. Bachmeier & Jennifer Van Hook & Frank D. Bean, 2014. "Can We Measure Immigrants' Legal Status? Lessons from Two U.S. Surveys," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 538-566, June.
    7. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2015. "The impact of E-Verify mandates on labor market outcomes," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 947-959, April.
    8. B. Lindsay Lowell, 2014. "Managing immigration: A review of some past projections," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 11(1), pages 33-42, January.
    9. Jennifer Hook & Frank Bean & James Bachmeier & Catherine Tucker, 2014. "Recent Trends in Coverage of the Mexican-Born Population of the United States: Results From Applying Multiple Methods Across Time," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(2), pages 699-726, April.
    10. George J. Borjas, 2016. "The Labor Supply of Undocumented Immigrants," NBER Working Papers 22102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Borjas, George J, 2016. "The Labor Supply of Undocumented Immigrants," Working Paper Series 16-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Michael Rendall & Peter Brownell & Sarah Kups, 2011. "Declining Return Migration From the United States to Mexico in the Late-2000s Recession: A Research Note," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 1049-1058, August.
    13. repec:iza:izawol:journl:y:2014:p:81 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2016. "Do state work eligibility verification laws reduce unauthorized immigration?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Robert Warren & John Robert Warren, 2013. "Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 296-329, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unauthorized immigrants; Illegal immigrants; Temporary foreign workers;

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1701. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.