IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mexican Migration to the United States: Underlying Economic Factors and Possible Scenarios for Future Flows


  • Daniel Chiquiar
  • Alejandrina Salcedo


In this paper we examine some economic factors that have influenced migration flows from Mexico to the United States since 1990 for the purpose of constructing scenarios on how such flows could evolve in the near term. In particular, we link the behavior of migration to changes in sectoral growth in the US, as well as to a heterogeneous participation of Mexican workers in employment by sector. To forecast future migration flows, we propose and estimate a model of demand for Mexican labor by US sector and use it to construct possible scenarios for migration flows. While the estimation is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, the main conclusion is that net migration flows of Mexicans to the United States over the coming years are likely to increase compared to what was observed during the recent global economic crisis, but that such flows are very unlikely to reach the levels registered during the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Chiquiar & Alejandrina Salcedo, 2013. "Mexican Migration to the United States: Underlying Economic Factors and Possible Scenarios for Future Flows," Working Papers 2013-20, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2013-20

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters,in: International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.

    More about this item


    Migration flows; labor demand; US sectoral growth;

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J82 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Labor Force Composition

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2013-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dirección de Sistemas). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.