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Mexican Migration to the United States: Underlying Economic Factors and Possible Scenarios for Future Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Chiquiar Daniel
  • Salcedo Alejandrina

Abstract

In this paper we examine some economic factors that have influenced migration flows from Mexico to the United States since 1990 for the purpose of constructing scenarios on how such flows could evolve in the near term. In particular, we link the behavior of migration to changes in sectoral growth in the US, as well as to a heterogeneous participation of Mexican workers in employment by sector. To forecast future migration flows, we propose and estimate a model of demand for Mexican labor by US sector and use it to construct possible scenarios for migration flows. While the estimation is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, the main conclusion is that net migration flows of Mexicans to the United States over the coming years are likely to increase compared to what was observed during the recent global economic crisis, but that such flows are very unlikely to reach the levels registered during the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiquiar Daniel & Salcedo Alejandrina, 2013. "Mexican Migration to the United States: Underlying Economic Factors and Possible Scenarios for Future Flows," Working Papers 2013-20, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2013-20
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    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B277A15D7-3934-82D3-D760-AF02B8BF8037%7D.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Caballero, María Esther & Cadena, Brian C. & Kovak, Brian K., 2023. "The international transmission of local economic shocks through migrant networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Andrés Villarreal, 2014. "Explaining the Decline in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Effect of the Great Recession," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2203-2228, December.
    4. Sandra Orozco-Aleman & Heriberto Gonzalez-Lozano, 2021. "Return Migration and Self-Employment: Evidence from Mexican Migrants," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 148-183, June.
    5. B. Lindsay Lowell, 2014. "Managing immigration: A review of some past projections," Migration Letters, Migration Letters, vol. 11(1), pages 33-42, January.
    6. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    7. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2017. "Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios," Working Papers 1701, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J82 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Labor Force Composition

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