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Que nous apprennent les données macro-sectorielles sur les premiers effets du CICE ? Evaluation opur la période 2014-2015 T2

Listed author(s):
  • bruno Ducoudré

    (OFCE-Sciences PO)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE-SciencesPo)

  • Mathieu Plane

    (OFCE Sciences po)

L’objectif de cet article est de mettre en évidence des effets potentiels du CICE sur l’économie française sur la période 2014-2015t2, à partir de l’information fournie par les comptes nationaux trimestriels par branche. Partant d’une analyse économétrique en panel, nous cherchons à savoir si le CICE a eu des effets sur l’emploi, les salaires et les prix de valeur ajoutée. Cette méthode permet d’identifier et de quantifier les effets relatifs interbranche du CICE sur ces variables, mais ne permet pas d’en déduire des effets macroéconomiques. A partir de nos estimations sur 16 branches, il apparait que pour un montant de CICE équivalent à 1% de la masse salariale, l’emploi d’une branche augmenterait de 0,5% relativement aux autres branches, les salaires de 0,7%. Enfin, à partir des résultats d’estimations réalisées simultanément, nous pouvons quantifier ces effets relatifs interbranche, qui seraient de 1,1% pour les salaires et de 120 000 pour l’emploi (création ou sauvegarde).

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File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2015-29.pdf
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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2015-29.

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Date of creation: Dec 2015
Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1529
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  2. Christophe Blot & Hervé Péléraux & Raul Sampognaro & Sébastien Villemot, 2015. "Comprendre la dynamique salariale par temps de crise," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(8), pages 219-255.
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  7. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
  8. Bruno Ducoudré & Mathieu Plane, 2015. "Les demandes de facteurs de production en France. Estimation et analyse des effets de la crise," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 21-53.
  9. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1993. "Labor Demand and the Source of Adjustment Costs," NBER Working Papers 4394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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