Industrial Subsidies along Domestic Value Chains and Their Impacts on China’s Exports

China is now the world’s largest exporter, with average export prices ranging from only 40% to 60% of those in other countries. This paper examines whether industrial subsidies can explain China’s export performance and global competitiveness. Using firm-level subsidy data and inter-provincial input-output tables with firm ownership information, we measure both direct subsidies and indirect subsidies from upstream industries. Our analysis yields several key findings: (1) Direct subsidies significantly increase both Chinese firms’ probability of exporting (extensive margin) and their export volume (intensive margin), with a larger effect on the intensive margin. (2) Notably, indirect subsidies (especially those from first-tier upstream industries) also play an important role in boosting exports. (3) Both domestic and foreign-invested firms benefit from direct subsidies, though the effects of upstream subsidies vary by firm ownership. (4) Contrary to expectations, subsidies do not lead to lower export prices. Instead, both direct and indirect subsidies are positively associated with product quality, thereby reducing quality-adjusted prices. The mechanism analysis suggests that export growth and quality upgrading are driven by (i) direct subsidies through increased R&D and imported inputs, and (ii) indirect subsidies through domestic intermediate inputs. Overall, the findings indicate that government support may promote quality upgrading and strengthen the global competitiveness of Chinese exporters.