IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/17093.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor Market Impact of Labor Cost Increase without Productivity Gain: A natural experiment from the 2003 social insurance premium reform in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • KODAMA Naomi
  • YOKOYAMA Izumi

Abstract

Exploiting heterogeneous variations in labor cost increases due to Japan's 2003 social insurance premium reform as a natural experiment, we estimate the impacts of the increased social insurance premiums on employment, working hours, and payroll costs. Using the difference in differences (DID) method with establishment fixed effects, we find that firms reduce the number of employees and increase average annual earnings from longer working hours in response to an exogenous increase in labor costs without productivity gains. Firms manage to pay for this increase in the average wage paid to the remaining workers by reducing the number of employees to keep total payroll costs unchanged. In contrast, since social insurance premiums are shared equally between employees and employers, firms pay the remaining half of the premiums with which that they are imposed. Our results imply that an increase in labor costs without productivity gain may reduce employment.

Suggested Citation

  • KODAMA Naomi & YOKOYAMA Izumi, 2017. "Labor Market Impact of Labor Cost Increase without Productivity Gain: A natural experiment from the 2003 social insurance premium reform in Japan," Discussion papers 17093, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:17093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/17e093.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Costas Meghir, 1998. "Estimating Labor Supply Responses Using Tax Reforms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 827-862, July.
    2. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    3. repec:iza:izawol:journl:y:2014:p:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kohei Komamura & Atsuhiro Yamada, 2004. "Who Bears the Burden of Social Insurance?," NBER Working Papers 10339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Miyazato, Naomi & 宮里, 尚三 & Ogura, Seiritsu & 小椋, 正立, 2010. "Empirical Analysis of the Incidence of Employer's Contributions for Health Care and Long Term Care Insurances in Japan," PIE/CIS Discussion Paper 473, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Anderson, Patricia M. & Meyer, Bruce D., 2000. "The effects of the unemployment insurance payroll tax on wages, employment, claims and denials," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 81-106, October.
    7. Adriana Kugler & Maurice Kugler, 2009. "Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 335-358, January.
    8. John Dinardo & Thomas Lemieux, 1997. "Diverging Male Wage Inequality in the United States and Ganada, 1981–1988: Do Institutions Explain the Difference?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 50(4), pages 629-651, July.
    9. Junya Hamaaki & Yasushi Iwamoto, 2010. "A Reappraisal Of The Incidence Of Employer Contributions To Social Security In Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 427-441, September.
    10. Nada Eissa & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 1996. "Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 605-637.
    11. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2021. "Do labor costs affect companies’ demand for labor?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-3, February.
    12. Komamura, Kohei & Yamada, Atsuhiro, 2004. "Who bears the burden of social insurance? Evidence from Japanese health and long-term care insurance data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 565-581, December.
    13. Feldstein, Martin, 1995. "The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 551-572, June.
    14. Gruber, Jonathan, 1997. "The Incidence of Payroll Taxation: Evidence from Chile," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 72-101, July.
    15. repec:bbp:journl:y:2014:p:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Daron Acemoglu & David H. Autor & David Lyle, 2004. "Women, War, and Wages: The Effect of Female Labor Supply on the Wage Structure at Midcentury," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 497-551, June.
    17. Hashimoto, Masanori, 1979. "Bonus Payments, on-the-Job Training, and Lifetime Employment in Japan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1086-1104, October.
    18. Alexander M. Gelber, 2014. "Taxation and the Earnings of Husbands and Wives: Evidence from Sweden," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 287-305, May.
    19. Martin Feldstein & Daniel Feenberg, 1996. "The Effect of Increased Tax Rates on Taxable Income and Economic Efficiency: A Preliminary Analysis of the 1993 Tax Rate Increases," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 10, pages 89-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ángel Melguizo & José González-Páramo, 2013. "Who bears labour taxes and social contributions? A meta-analysis approach," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 247-271, August.
    21. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from Flows in the Labor Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 397-407, August.
    22. KAWAGUCHI Daiji & NAITO Hisahiro & YOKOYAMA Izumi, 2008. "Labor Market Responses to Legal Work Hour Reduction: Evidence from Japan," ESRI Discussion paper series 202, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    23. Andrew Benito & Ignacio Hernando, 2008. "Labour Demand, Flexible Contracts and Financial Factors: Firm‐Level Evidence from Spain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(3), pages 283-301, June.
    24. Kai-Uwe Müller & Michael Neumann, 2017. "Who Bears the Burden of Social Security Contributions in Germany? Evidence from 35 Years of Administrative Data," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(2), pages 165-179, June.
    25. Feldstein, Martin, 1995. "The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 551-572, June.
    26. Holmlund, Bertil, 1983. " Payroll Taxes and Wage Inflation: The Swedish Experience," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 85(1), pages 1-15.
    27. Meghir, Costas & Phillips, David, 2008. "Labour Supply and Taxes," IZA Discussion Papers 3405, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    28. Hashimoto, Masanori & Raisian, John, 1985. "Employment Tenure and Earnings Profiles in Japan and the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 721-735, September.
    29. Izumi Yokoyama, 2014. "Why do wages become more rigid during a recession than during a boom?," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.
    30. Toshiaki Tachibanaki & Yukiko Yokoyama, 2008. "The Estimation Of The Incidence Of Employer Contributions To Social Security In Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 75-83, March.
    31. Li, Pei & Lu, Yi & Wang, Jin, 2016. "Does flattening government improve economic performance? Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 18-37.
    32. Mr. Chad Steinberg & Mr. Masato Nakane, 2011. "To Fire or to Hoard? Explaining Japan’s Labor Market Response in the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 2011/015, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kodama, Naomi & Yokoyama, Izumi, 2015. "How the 2003 Social Insurance Premium Reform Affects Firm Behavior," CIS Discussion paper series 650, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. HAMAAKI Junya, 2016. "The Incidence of Health Insurance Costs: Empirical evidence from Japan," Discussion papers 16020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Junya Hamaaki & Yasushi Iwamoto, 2010. "A Reappraisal Of The Incidence Of Employer Contributions To Social Security In Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 427-441, September.
    4. Kim, Jinyoung & Kim, Seonghoon & Koh, Kanghyock, 2022. "Labor market institutions and the incidence of payroll taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. YOKOYAMA, Izumi & 横山, 泉, 2015. "The Impact of Tax Reform in Japan on the Work-Hour and Income Distributions of Married Women," Discussion Papers 2015-02, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Xufei Zhang & Hongsheng Fang & Lin Guo, 2023. "Corporate Endowment Insurance Fee Reduction and Employee Wages: Evidence from China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(2), pages 192-222, March.
    7. Ángel Melguizo & José González-Páramo, 2013. "Who bears labour taxes and social contributions? A meta-analysis approach," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 247-271, August.
    8. Gavrilova, Evelina & Zoutman, Floris T. & Hopland, Arnt O., 2017. "How to Use One Instrument to Identify Two Elasticities," Discussion Papers 2017/2, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    9. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Tore Olsen & Luigi Pistaferri, 2011. "Adjustment Costs, Firm Responses, and Micro vs. Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from Danish Tax Records," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 749-804.
    10. Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Who bears the burden of employer compliance with social security contributions? Evidence from Chinese firm level data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 230-244, June.
    11. Liang, Che-Yuan, 2018. "Taxes and Household Labor Supply: Estimating Distributional Effects of Nonlinear Prices on Multidimensional Choice," Working Paper Series 2018:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    12. Bingley, Paul & Lanot, Gauthier, 2002. "The incidence of income tax on wages and labour supply," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 173-194, February.
    13. Florian Buhlmann & Benjamin Elsner & Andreas Peichl, 2018. "Tax refunds and income manipulation: evidence from the EITC," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(6), pages 1490-1518, December.
    14. Lehmann, Etienne & Marical, François & Rioux, Laurence, 2013. "Labor income responds differently to income-tax and payroll-tax reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 66-84.
    15. Adam, Stuart & Phillips, David & Roantree, Barra, 2019. "35 years of reforms: A panel analysis of the incidence of, and employee and employer responses to, social security contributions in the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 29-50.
    16. Lehmann, Etienne & Marical, François & Rioux, Laurence, 2011. "Labor Earnings Respond Differently to Income-Tax and to Payroll-Tax Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 6108, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Jakobsen, Katrine Marie & Søgaard, Jakob Egholt, 2022. "Identifying behavioral responses to tax reforms: New insights and a new approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    18. Carina Neisser, 2021. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income: A Meta-Regression Analysis [The top 1% in international and historical perspective]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(640), pages 3365-3391.
    19. Nicole Bosch, 2019. "The Incidence of Pension Contributions," CPB Discussion Paper 388.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Raj Chetty, 2009. "Sufficient Statistics for Welfare Analysis: A Bridge Between Structural and Reduced-Form Methods," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 451-488, May.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:17093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.