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Are Contingent Jobs Dead Ends or Stepping Stones to Regular Jobs? Evidence from a Structural Estimation

  • Julen ESTEBAN-PRETEL
  • NAKAJIMA Ryo
  • TANAKA Ryuichi

The proportion of part-time, dispatch, and temporary workers has increased in many developed economies in recent years. These workers receive lower average wages and benefits, and are subject to lower employment stability. This paper analyzes the effects of initially taking such jobs on the employment careers of young workers. We build an on-and-off-the-job search model, using Japanese data to perform a structural estimation of the model parameters and simulate career paths, in order to study the effects of the initial choice of employment on the probability of having a regular job in the future and on the welfare of the worker. We find that although contingent jobs are neither stepping stones towards regular employment nor dead-ends, starting a career in a contingent job has a lasting effect on the welfare of the individual in Japan.

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Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 09002.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:09002
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  1. Marloes de Graaf-Zijl & Gerard van den Berg & Arjan Heyma, 2011. "Stepping stones for the unemployed: the effect of temporary jobs on the duration until (regular) work," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 107-139, January.
  2. David H. Autor & Susan Houseman, 2005. "Do Temporary Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes for Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence from 'Work First'," NBER Working Papers 11743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages F189-F213, June.
  4. Antoni Cunyat & Elena Casquel, 2004. "The Dynamics Of Temporary Jobs In Spain," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 141, Royal Economic Society.
  5. Gaston, Noel & Kishi, Tomoko, 2007. "Part-time workers doing full-time work in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 435-454, December.
  6. Susan Houseman & Machiko Osawa (ed.), 2003. "Nonstandard Work in Developed Economies: Causes and Consequences," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number nwde, December.
  7. Michael Kvasnicka, 2009. "Does Temporary Help Work Provide a Stepping Stone to Regular Employment?," NBER Chapters, in: Studies of Labor Market Intermediation, pages 335-372 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  9. James J. Heckman & Christopher J. Flinn, 1982. "New Methods for Analyzing Structural Models of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Genda, Yuji & Kurosawa, Masako, 2001. "Transition from School to Work in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 465-488, December.
  11. Gaston, Noel & Timcke, David, 1999. "Do Casual Workers Find Permanent Full-Time Employment? Evidence from the Australian Youth Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(231), pages 333-47, December.
  12. Kondo, Ayako, 2007. "Does the first job really matter? State dependency in employment status in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 379-402, September.
  13. Olympia Bover & Ramón Gómez, 2004. "Another look at unemployment duration: exit to a permanent vs. a temporary job," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(2), pages 285-314, May.
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