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Are contingent jobs dead ends or stepping stones to regular jobs? Evidence from a structural estimation

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  • Esteban-Pretel, Julen
  • Nakajima, Ryo
  • Tanaka, Ryuichi

Abstract

The proportion of part-time, dispatch, and temporary workers has increased in many developed economies in recent years. These workers receive lower average wages and benefits, and are subject to lower employment stability. This paper analyzes the effects of initially taking such jobs on the employment careers of young workers. We build an on-and-off-the-job search model, using Japanese data to perform a structural estimation of the model parameters and simulate career paths, in order to study the effects of the initial choice of employment on the probability of having a regular job in the future and on the welfare of the worker. We find that although contingent jobs are neither stepping stones towards regular employment nor dead ends, starting a career in a contingent job has a lasting effect on the welfare of the individual in Japan.

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  • Esteban-Pretel, Julen & Nakajima, Ryo & Tanaka, Ryuichi, 2011. "Are contingent jobs dead ends or stepping stones to regular jobs? Evidence from a structural estimation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 513-526, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:513-526
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ayumu Tanaka, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment and Temporary Workers in Japan," Discussion papers e-16-011, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    2. Hiroshi Teruyama & Hiroyuki Toda, 2017. "Polarization and Persistence in the Japanese Labor Market," KIER Working Papers 957, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Kambayashi, Ryo & Kato, Takao, 2012. "Good Jobs, Bad Jobs, and the Great Recession: Lessons from Japan's Lost Decade," IZA Discussion Papers 6666, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Yoshio Higuchi, 2013. "The Dynamics of Poverty and the Promotion of Transition from Non-Regular to Regular Employment in Japan: Economic Effects of Minimum Wage Revision and Job Training Support," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 147-200, June.
    5. Kenn Ariga & Masako Kurosawa & Fumio Ohtake & Masaru Sasaki, 2012. "How Do High School Graduates In Japan Compete For Regular, Full-Time Jobs? An Empirical Analysis Based Upon An Internet Survey Of The Youth," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 348-379, September.
    6. Miyamoto Hiroaki, 2016. "Growth and non-regular employment," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 523-554, June.
    7. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2013. "Cross-sectional Facts in Japan using Keio Household Panel Survey," MPRA Paper 49813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Michelle Rendall, 2018. "Female Market Work, Tax Regimes, and the Rise of the Service Sector," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 269-289, April.
    9. OSHIO Takashi & INAGAKI Seiichi, 2014. "Does Initial Job Status Affect Midlife Outcomes and Mental Health? Evidence from a survey in Japan," Discussion papers 14025, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Oshio, Takashi & Inagaki, Seiichi, 2013. "Does initial job status affect midlife outcomes and mental health? Evidence from a survey in Japan," CIS Discussion paper series 585, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Makoto Kakinaka & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2012. "Extensive vs. Intensive Margin in Japan," Working Papers EMS_2012_14, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    12. Nguyen, Huu-Chi. & Nguyen-Huu, Thanh Tam. & Le, Thi-Thuy-Linh., 2016. "Non-standard forms of employment in some Asian countries : a study of wages and working conditions of temporary workers," ILO Working Papers 994901213402676, International Labour Organization.
    13. Hirokatsu Asano & Takahiro Ito & Daiji Kawaguchi, 2011. "Why Has the Fraction of Contingent Workers Increased? A Case Study of Japan," IDEC DP2 Series 1-3, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    14. Kato, Takao., 2016. "Productivity, wages and unions in Japan," ILO Working Papers 994904643402676, International Labour Organization.
    15. Hirokatsu Asano & Takahiro Ito & Daiji Kawaguchi, 2013. "Why Has the Fraction of Nonstandard Workers Increased? A Case Study of Japan," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(4), pages 360-389, September.
    16. Michelle Rendall, 2018. "Female Market Work, Tax Regimes, and the Rise of the Service Sector," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 269-289, April.
    17. Okudaira, Hiroko & Ohtake, Fumio & Kume, Koichi & Tsuru, Kotaro, 2013. "What does a temporary help service job offer? Empirical suggestions from a Japanese survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 37-68.
    18. Tanaka, Ayumu, 2013. "The causal effects of exporting on domestic workers: A firm-level analysis using Japanese data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 13-23.
    19. Semih Tümen, 2016. "Informality as a stepping stone: A search-theoretical assessment of informal sector and government policy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(3), pages 109-117.
    20. Hara, Hiromi, 2014. "The impact of firm-provided training on productivity, wages, and transition to regular employment for workers in flexible arrangements," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 336-359.
    21. Tanaka, Ayumu, 2017. "Foreign direct investment and temporary workers in Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 87-99.
    22. Julen ESTEBAN-PRETEL & NAKAJIMA Ryo & TANAKA Ryuichi, 2011. "Changes in Japan's Labor Market Flows due to the Lost Decade," Discussion papers 11039, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    23. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Buch, Tanja, 2013. "Wage effects of labor market entry via temporary work agency employment - evidence for German apprenticeship graduates," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79818, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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