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When to Invest in Carbon Capture and Storage Technology: A Mathematical Model

Author

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  • Walsh, Darragh
  • O'Sullivan, Kevin
  • Lee, William
  • Devine, Mel

Abstract

We present two models of the optimal investment decision in carbon capture and storage technology (CCS)—one where the carbon price is deterministic (based on the newly introduced carbon floor price in Great Britain) and one where the carbon price is stochastic (based on the ETS permit price in the rest of Europe). A novel feature of this work is that in both models investment costs are time dependent which adds an extra dimension to the decision problem. Our deterministic model allows for quite general dependence on carbon price and consideration of time to build and simple calculus techniques determine the optimal time to invest. We then analyse the effect of carbon price volatility on the optimal investment decision by solving a Bellman equation with an infinite planning horizon. We find that increasing the carbon price volatility increases the critical investment threshold and that adoption of this technology is not optimal at current prices, in agreement with other works. However reducing carbon price volatility by switching from carbon permits to taxes or by introducing a carbon floor as in Great Britain would accelerate the adoption of carbon abatement technologies such as CCS.
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Suggested Citation

  • Walsh, Darragh & O'Sullivan, Kevin & Lee, William & Devine, Mel, 2014. "When to Invest in Carbon Capture and Storage Technology: A Mathematical Model," Papers RB2014/1/4, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:rb2014/1/4
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xinhua & Gan, Dongmei & Wang, Yali & Liu, Yu & Ge, Jiali & Xie, Rui, 2020. "The impact of price and revenue floors on carbon emission reduction investment by coal-fired power plants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Compernolle, Tine & Kort, Peter M. & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2022. "The effectiveness of carbon pricing: The role of diversification in a firm’s investment decision," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Jung, Jihyeok & Moon, Saedaseul & Yeo, Sangmin & Lee, Deok-Joo, 2023. "How would the carbon market affect the choice of input factors for production? A duopolistic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    4. Xiping Wang & Shaoyuan Qie, 2018. "Study on the investment timing of carbon capture and storage under different business modes," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(4), pages 639-649, August.
    5. Chen, Yiwen & Paulus, Nora & Wan, Xi & Zou, Benteng, 2024. "Optimal timing of carbon capture and storage policies — A social planner’s view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. Mo, Jian-Lei & Schleich, Joachim & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems—Implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi-stage decision model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 255-264.
    7. Benalcazar, Pablo, 2021. "Optimal sizing of thermal energy storage systems for CHP plants considering specific investment costs: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    8. Guo, Jian-Xin & Huang, Chen, 2020. "Feasible roadmap for CCS retrofit of coal-based power plants to reduce Chinese carbon emissions by 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    9. Curtis, John & Devitt, Niamh & di Cosmo, Valeria & Farrell, Niall & FitzGerald, John & Hyland, Marie & Lynch, Muireann & Lyons, Sean & McCoy, Daire & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Walsh, Darragh, 2014. "Irish Energy Policy: An Analysis of Current Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number rs37 edited by FitzGerald, John & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura.
    10. Zhang, Xinhua & Hueng, C. James & Lemke, Robert J., 2023. "Using a price floor on carbon allowances to achieve emission reductions under uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1096-1110.
    11. Lynch, Muireann A, 2017. "Re-evaluating Irish energy policy in light of brexit," Research Notes RN20170201, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Rahman, Arief & Richards, Russell & Dargusch, Paul & Wadley, David, 2023. "Pathways to reduce Indonesia’s dependence on oil and achieve longer-term decarbonization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1305-1323.
    13. Marcin Penconek & Stefano Pagliarani, 2025. "Disruptive innovation: Incumbent’s response to innovation threat," Working Papers 2025-04, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    14. Yang, Lin & Xu, Mao & Fan, Jingli & Liang, Xi & Zhang, Xian & Lv, Haodong & Wang, Dong, 2021. "Financing coal-fired power plant to demonstrate CCS (carbon capture and storage) through an innovative policy incentive in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Thomas Aspinall & Adrian Gepp & Geoff Harris & Simone Kelly & Colette Southam & Bruce Vanstone, 2021. "Estimation of a term structure model of carbon prices through state space methods: The European Union emissions trading scheme," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 3797-3819, June.
    16. Rolf Golombek & Mads Greaker & Snorre Kverndokk & Lin Ma, 2021. "The Transition to Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 9047, CESifo.
    17. Seoungbeom Na & Woosik Jang & Youngwoong Lee, 2024. "Economic Feasibility and Strategic Planning for Floating Solar Power Plants in Korea: A Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-18, December.
    18. Narita, Daiju & Klepper, Gernot, 2015. "Economic incentives for carbon dioxide storage under uncertainty: A real options analysis," Kiel Working Papers 2002, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    19. Dahlen, Niklas & Fehrenkötter, Rieke & Schreiter, Maximilian, 2024. "The new bond on the block — Designing a carbon-linked bond for sustainable investment projects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 316-325.
    20. Fan, Jin & He, Haonan & Wu, Yanrui, 2016. "Personal carbon trading and subsidies for hybrid electric vehicles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 164-173.
    21. Zhou, Yuanqi & Yang, Jinqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2023. "Optimizing energy efficiency investments in steel firms: A real options model considering carbon trading and tax cuts during challenging economic conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    22. Jingyu Qu & Wooyoung Jeon, 2022. "Price and subsidy under uncertainty: Real-option approach to optimal investment decisions on energy storage with solar PV," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(2), pages 263-282, March.
    23. McQuinn, Kieran & Foley, Daniel & O'Toole, Conor, 2017. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2017," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20172.
    24. Zhang, Xinhua & Yang, Hongming & Yu, Qian & Qiu, Jing & Zhang, Yongxi, 2018. "Analysis of carbon-abatement investment for thermal power market in carbon-dispatching mode and policy recommendations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 954-966.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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