Harnessing Administrative Data for Impact: The Case of Jordan’s Unified Cash Transfer Programme

Over the past decade and a half, Jordan has been facing structural challenges like rising fiscal pressures and high unemployment. In 2018, poverty stood at 15.7%, which has likely increased further due to recent economic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, Jordan has scaled up its social protection system, particularly through the National Aid Fund (NAF), which administers key social assistance programmes. NAF’s Unified Cash Transfer (UCT) programme, launched in 2022, aims to alleviate poverty by providing targeted financial support to vulnerable households. This paper evaluates the short-term impact of Jordan’s UCT programme on economic outcomes, living standards, and school attendance, using administrative data from the National Unified Registry (NUR). Employing a regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching with difference-in-differences, the study examines whether the UCT alleviates vulnerability and prevents the emergence of poverty traps. While there are positive effects on household heads’ employment outcomes and children’s school enrolment, the programme shows limited success in increasing household income and asset ownership. The study also assesses the programme’s targeting mechanism and data management processes and offers recommendations for future impact evaluations that contribute to improving the effectiveness of the programme in addressing households’ socio-economic risks.