IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/1792.html

The Interplay Between Fertility and Female Labor Market Dynamics in the Arab Region: A Panel Time Series Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali

    (University of Khartoum)

  • Ebaidallah Mahjoub Ebaidallah

    (University of Khartoum)

  • Manal Osman Elhaj

    (Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University)

Abstract

This study investigates the complex relationship between fertility and female labor force participation in the Arab region, where sociocultural norms often constrain women’s economic empowerment. Using panel data from 1991 to 2023 across 15 Arab countries, the analysis employs the Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model to address potential endogeneity and account for dynamic heterogeneity. The results show that higher fertility rates reduce labor market participation among women aged 15–64, while, somewhat unexpectedly, increasing participation among younger women aged 15–24. However, fertility is associated with higher unemployment rates in both age groups. These findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions to support women’s employment, including expanded access to reproductive health services, flexible work arrangements, affordable childcare, and broader gender equity initiatives. The study’s key contribution lies in its region-wide, longitudinal approach, offering new insights that extend beyond previous country-specific or cross-sectional analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali & Ebaidallah Mahjoub Ebaidallah & Manal Osman Elhaj, 2025. "The Interplay Between Fertility and Female Labor Market Dynamics in the Arab Region: A Panel Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 1792, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Aug 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://erf.org.eg/publications/the-interplay-between-fertility-and-female-labor-market-dynamics-in-the-arab-region-a-panel-time-series-analysis/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://erf.org.eg/app/uploads/2025/08/1755671202_197_829063_1792.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toseef Azid & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Adnan M.S. Alamasi, 2010. "Labor force participation of married women in Punjab (Pakistan)," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(8), pages 592-612, July.
    2. Meltem Ucal & Simge Günay, 2019. "Female employment status: a survey analysis of selected member states of the Arab League," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(3), pages 373-394, September.
    3. Tam, Henry, 2011. "U-shaped female labor participation with economic development: Some panel data evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 140-142, February.
    4. Claudia Goldin, 1994. "The U-Shaped Female Labor Force Function in Economic Development and Economic History," NBER Working Papers 4707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Baah-Boateng, William & Frempong, Richard & Nketiah-Amponsah, Edward, 2013. "The effect of fertility and education on female labour force participation in Ghana," MPRA Paper 109703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Aidan Laurent Sunday & Robert Michael Lihawa & Eliaza Mkuna, 2024. "The effect of fertility on female labour force participation in Tanzania," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Abena Yeboah Abraham & Fidelia Nana Akom Ohemeng & Williams Ohemeng, 2017. "Female labour force participation: evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(11), pages 1489-1505, November.
    8. Abdullah Abdulaziz Bawazir & Ahmad Farid Osman & Mohamed Aslam, 2022. "Factors Affecting Female Labor Force Participation in the Middle East: An Empirical Evidence from Panel Data Approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 56(1), pages 59-72, January–M.
    9. Dong, Xiao-yuan & Pandey, Manish, 2012. "Gender and labor retrenchment in Chinese state owned enterprises: Investigation using firm-level panel data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 385-395.
    10. Joost de Laat & Almudena Sevilla-Sanz, 2011. "The Fertility and Women's Labor Force Participation puzzle in OECD Countries: The Role of Men's Home Production," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 87-119.
    11. Daniela Del Boca & Silvia Pasqua & Chiara Pronzato, 2009. "Motherhood and market work decisions in institutional context: a European perspective," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(suppl_1), pages 147-171, April.
    12. Hany Guirguis & Theresa Donlon & Maura McCarthy & Adis Mehovic & Rehan Mehta, 2024. "The future of the labour force: a quantitative examination of the drivers of female labor force participation and total fertility rate in developed economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(44), pages 5238-5248, September.
    13. Sher Verick, 2014. "Female labor force participation in developing countries," World of Labour, LISER, pages 1-87, September.
    14. Toseef Azid & Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Adnan M.S. Alamasi, 2010. "Labor force participation of married women in Punjab (Pakistan)," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(8), pages 592-612, July.
    15. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    16. Jorge M. Aguero & Mindy S. Marks, 2008. "Motherhood and Female Labor Force Participation: Evidence from Infertility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 500-504, May.
    17. repec:iza:izawol:journl:y:2014:p:87 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Goldin, Claudia, 1992. "Understanding the Gender Gap: An Economic History of American Women," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195072709.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali, Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa & Ebaidallah, Ebaidallah Mahjoub & Elhaj, Manal Osman, 2025. "The Interplay Between Fertility and Female Labor Market Dynamics in the Arab Region: A Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 124964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sanja Samirana Pattnayak & Alka Chadha & Suresh Kumar Patra, 2024. "Lockdowns and female labour force participation: the curious case of India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(52), pages 6690-6704, November.
    3. de Jong, Eelke & Smits, Jeroen & Longwe, Abiba, 2017. "Estimating the Causal Effect of Fertility on Women’s Employment in Africa Using Twins," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 360-368.
    4. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski & Stefan Tanevski, 2024. "Behind the Curtain: Cultural Norms, Gender Stereotypes and Work Attitudes Shaping Women’s Labour-Market Inactivity in North Macedonia," Finance Think Policy Studies 2024-09/52, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    5. Hanan Nazier & Racha Ramadan, 2016. "Women's Participation in Labor Market in Egypt: Constraints and Opportunities," Working Papers 999, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2016.
    6. Paolo Verme, 2015. "Economic development and female labor participation in the Middle East and North Africa: a test of the U-shape hypothesis," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2021. "Women’s reproductive health and economic activity: A narrative review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Mahesh Karra & David Canning & Joshua Wilde, 2015. "A Simulation Model of the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth in Africa," Working Papers 0315, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    9. Lundborg, Petter & Plug, Erik & Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz, 2014. "Fertility Effects on Female Labor Supply: IV Evidence from IVF Treatments," IZA Discussion Papers 8609, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Daniel Aaronson & Rajeev Dehejia & Andrew Jordan & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Cyrus Samii & Karl Schulze, 2021. "The Effect of Fertility on Mothers’ Labor Supply over the Last Two Centuries [Semiparametric instrumental variables estimation of treatment response models]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 1-32.
    11. Arup MITRA & Sabyasachi TRIPATHI, 2024. "Do More Women Find Employment As The Urban Population Grows?," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(2), pages 88-117, May.
    12. Chi-Wei Su & Zheng-Zheng Li & Ran Tao & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2019. "Can economic development boost the active female labor force?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 1021-1036, March.
    13. Hina Amber & Bezawit Beyene Chichaibelu, 2023. "Patterns and Causes of Female Labor Force Participation: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis for Pakistan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-31, April.
    14. Mohammad Amin & Asif Islam, 2015. "Does Mandating Nondiscrimination in Hiring Practices Influence Women's Employment? Evidence Using Firm-Level Data," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 28-60, October.
    15. Bedi, Arjun S. & Majilla, Tanmoy & Rieger, Matthias, 2018. "Gender Norms and the Motherhood Penalty: Experimental Evidence from India," IZA Discussion Papers 11360, IZA Network @ LISER.
    16. Isis Gaddis & Stephan Klasen, 2014. "Economic development, structural change, and women’s labor force participation:," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 639-681, July.
    17. Howes, Candace & Singh, Ajit, 1995. "Long-term trends in the World economy: The gender dimension," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(11), pages 1895-1911, November.
    18. Chhavi Tiwari & Srinivas Goli & Anu Rammohan, 2022. "Reproductive Burden and Its Impact on Female Labor Market Outcomes in India: Evidence from Longitudinal Analyses," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(6), pages 2493-2529, December.
    19. Ina GANGULI & Ricardo HAUSMANN & Martina VIARENGO, 2014. "Closing the gender gap in education: What is the state of gaps in labour force participation for women, wives and mothers?," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(2), pages 173-207, June.
    20. Chaudhary, Ruchika. & Verick, Sher., 2014. "Female labour force participation in India and beyond," ILO Working Papers 994867893402676, International Labour Organization.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Namees Nabeel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.