IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/era/wpaper/dp-2023-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of the United States-China Trade War During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Supply Chains: Evidence from Viet Nam

Author

Listed:
  • Duc Anh Dang

    (Central Institute for Economic Management, Viet Nam)

  • Ngoc Anh Tran

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

Abstract

The trade war between the United States (US) and China has affected their bilateral trade as well as that with other countries. This study investigates how Vietnamese firms performed during the COVID-19 pandemic under the shadow of this trade war. The change in the log of Vietnamese exports to the US from 2017 to 2020 is used to measure the impact of the trade war, and the change in the log of Chinese exports to the US is then used as an instrument for the Vietnamese export change during the same period. It is found that firms that faced more trade war exposure increased their investment, profit, and value added, which may be due to the market exit of unproductive firms. Moreover, the trade war impact is more pronounced for large firms. Foreign-invested firms gained less from trade war exposure. The pandemic weakened the trade war effect on firm performances; however, it exacerbated the trade tension effect on foreign-trade firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Duc Anh Dang & Ngoc Anh Tran, 2023. "The Effects of the United States-China Trade War During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Supply Chains: Evidence from Viet Nam," Working Papers DP-2023-11, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  • Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.eria.org/uploads/media/discussion-papers/FY23/The-Effects-of-the-United-States%E2%80%93China-Trade-War-during-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-on-Global-Supply-Chains.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    2. SUN Chang & TAO Zhigang & YUAN Hongjie & ZHANG Hongyong, 2019. "The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Japanese Multinational Corporations," Discussion papers 19050, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Masi, G. & Giovannetti, G. & Ricchiuti, G., 2013. "Network analysis to detect common strategies in Italian foreign direct investment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(5), pages 1202-1214.
    2. Elhanan Helpman, 2010. "Labor Market Frictions as a Source of Comparative Advantage, with Implications for Unemployment and Inequality," NBER Working Papers 15764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Patricia Kotnik & Eva Hagsten, 2018. "ICT use as a determinant of export activity in manufacturing and service firms: Multi-country evidence," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 103-128.
    4. Acar, Mustafa & Afyonoglu, Burcu & Kus, Savas & Vural, Bengisu, 2007. "Turkey’s Agricultural Integration with the EU: Quantifying the Implications," Conference papers 331657, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2022. "Markups, quality, and trade costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Joachim Wagner, 2012. "Exports, R&D and productivity: a test of the Bustos-model with German enterprise data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 1942-1948.
    7. Yuegang Song & Songlin Jin & Zhenhui Li, 2022. "Venture Capital and Chinese Firms’ Technological Innovation Capability: Effective Evaluation and Mechanism Verification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2018. "What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-29.
    9. Charlotte Emlinger & Viola Lamani, 2020. "International trade, quality sorting and trade costs: the case of Cognac," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 579-609, August.
    10. Alexandre Janiak & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2011. "Inflation and Welfare in Long‐Run Equilibrium with Firm Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 795-834, August.
    11. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    12. Kalantzis, Fotios & Niczyporuk, Hanna, 2021. "Can European businesses achieve productivity gains from investments in energy efficiency?," EIB Working Papers 2021/07, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    13. Dmitri Kirpichev & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2018. "The costs of trade protectionism: evidence from Spanish firms and non-tariff measures," Working Papers 1814, Banco de España.
    14. Tovar, Jorge, 2012. "Consumers’ Welfare and Trade Liberalization: Evidence from the Car Industry in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 808-820.
    15. Ricardo A. Lopez, 2007. "Exports and Productivity – Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries," CAEPR Working Papers 2007-028, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    16. Wang, Xu & Zhang, Xiaobo & Xie, Zhuan & Huang, Yiping, 2016. "Roads to innovation: Firm-level evidence from China:," IFPRI discussion papers 1542, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2007. "Productivity, terms of trade and the `home market effect'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 99-127, September.
    18. Dennis, Allen & Shepherd, Ben, 2007. "Trade costs, barriers to entry, and export diversification in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4368, The World Bank.
    19. Alexander Hijzen & Sébastien Jean & Thierry Mayer, 2011. "The effects at home of initiating production abroad: evidence from matched French firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 457-483, September.
    20. Sourafel Girma & Yundan Gong & Holger Görg & Zhihong Yu, 2009. "Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm‐level Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 863-891, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade diversion; Trade war; Pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2023-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ranti Amelia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eriadid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.