Long-Term Fundamentals of the 2008 Economic Crisis
The current economic crisis has long-term causes that are rooted in the economic dynamics of globalization. I construct a Solow-style endogenous model of capital accumulation, technological change, trade and cheap-factor-seeking foreign direct investment (FDI), based on myopic agents. Combining advanced technologies with low costs, FDI yields extraordinary profits that generate asymmetric innovation incentives that explain the following stylized facts. Globalization (a) increases capital accumulation; (b) is consistent with development, underdevelopment and miracle growth; (c) increases inequality in leading countries; (d) generates a transition path along which the interest rate diminishes if capital accumulates at a faster rate than technological change. Over the period 1980-2007, liberalization unleashed a wave of globalization, and the international sector experienced miracle growth. Profits rose to all time highs and global saving exceeded global investment. This savings glut or investment shortfall fueled a global housing appreciation, after which excessive risk in a deregulated financial market led to a financial meltdown. While restoring financial markets and reducing the housing market fallout are immediate priorities for the US, economic growth can only be recovered by restoring global investment. Lowering interest rates cannot generate very much investment, nor will consumption flows from fiscal spending. To stimulate the global economy, whole new economic sectors and technologies must be developed in advanced countries, and economic development deepened in underdeveloped countries. A global harmonization of taxes, which is eventually necessary anyway, is required to fund publicly provided goods, to balance incentives between local and international production, to reduce the polarization between developed and underdeveloped countries, to balance global markets with global governance, and to reinforce global cooperation. Developing the green energy sector is consistent with these aims.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 01 800 021 2433
Web page: http://www.cide.edu/divisiones-academicas/economia/Email:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2005.
"R&D, Implementation, and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 147-77, February.
- Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2002. "R&D, Implementation and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," NBER Working Papers 9104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2005.
"The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 173-222, January.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2004. "The Effects of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_021, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2004. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David & Aghion, Philippe, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," Scholarly Articles 4481509, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Dani Rodrik, 2007.
"Introductiion to One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth
[One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth]," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
- Peter C. Dawson & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "International Transfer Pricing for Goods and Intangible Asset Licenses in a Decentralized Multinational Corporation: Review and Extensions," Working Papers 0901, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson, 2004.
"Institutions As The Fundamental Cause Of Long-Run Growth,"
002889, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson, 2004. "Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 10481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A, 2004. "Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Weyzig, Francis & Van Dijk, Michiel, 2008. "Tax Haven and Development Partner: Incoherence in Dutch Government Policies," MPRA Paper 12526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Chris Papageorgiou & Subir Lall & Florence Jaumotte, 2008. "Rising Income Inequality; Technology, o+L3904r Trade and Financial Globalization?," IMF Working Papers 08/185, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.