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Long-Term Fundamentals of the 2008 Economic Crisis

  • Mayer-Foulkes David A

    ()

    (CIDE)

The current economic crisis has long-term causes that are rooted in the economic dynamics of globalization. I argue that globalization (a) increases the world economic growth rate; (b) is consistent with development, underdevelopment and miracle growth; (c) increases inequality in leading countries; and (d) generates a transition path along which the interest rate diminishes if capital accumulates at a faster rate than technological change. This condition is generated by cheap-factor-seeking foreign direct investment (FDI), which by combining advanced technologies with low costs yields extraordinary profits and experiences lower incentives for innovation. Over the period 1980-2007, liberalization unleashed a wave of globalization, and the international sector experienced miracle growth. Profits rose to all time highs and global saving exceeded global investment. This savings glut or investment shortfall fueled a global housing appreciation, after which excessive risk in a deregulated financial market led to a financial meltdown. While restoring financial markets and reducing the housing market fallout have been immediate priorities for the U.S., economic growth can only be recovered by restoring global investment. Lowering interest rates cannot generate very much investment, nor will consumption flows from fiscal spending. To stimulate the global economy, whole new economic sectors and technologies must be developed in advanced countries, and economic development deepened in underdeveloped countries. At the same time, a global harmonization of corporate taxes, ending the corporate tax haven loophole, would raise funds for publicly provided goods that complement private investment and balance incentives between local and international production. It would also reduce the polarization between developed and underdeveloped countries, balance global markets with global governance, and strengthen global cooperation.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Global Economy Journal.

Volume (Year): 9 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (January)
Pages: 1-25

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:9:y:2010:i:4:n:6
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  1. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt & David Mayer-Foulkes, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 173-222, January.
  2. Chris Papageorgiou & Subir Lall & Florence Jaumotte, 2008. "Rising Income Inequality; Technology, o+L3904r Trade and Financial Globalization?," IMF Working Papers 08/185, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Weyzig, Francis & Van Dijk, Michiel, 2008. "Tax Haven and Development Partner: Incoherence in Dutch Government Policies," MPRA Paper 12526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2005. "R&D, Implementation, and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 147-77, February.
  5. Dani Rodrik, 2007. "Introductiion to One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth
    [One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  6. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A, 2004. "Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Peter C. Dawson & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "International Transfer Pricing for Goods and Intangible Asset Licenses in a Decentralized Multinational Corporation: Review and Extensions," Working Papers 0901, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
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