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Climate Risk Assessment of the Sovereign Bond Portfolio of European Insurers

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Battiston
  • Petr Jakubik
  • Irene Monasterolo
  • Keywan Riahi
  • Bas van Ruijven

    (EIOPA)

Abstract

In the first collaboration between climate economists, climate financial risk modellers and financial regulators, we apply the CLIMAFIN framework described in Battiston at al. (2019) to provide a forward-looking climate transition risk assessment of the sovereign bonds’ portfolios of solo insurance companies in Europe. We consider a scenario of a disorderly introduction of climate policies that cannot be fully anticipated and priced in by investors. First, we analyse the shock on the market share and profitability of carbon-intensive and low-carbon activities under climate transition risk scenarios. Second, we define the climate risk management strategy under uncertainty for a risk averse investor that aims to minimise her largest losses. Third, we price the climate policies scenarios in the probability of default of the individual overeign bonds and in the bonds’ climate spread. Finally, we estimate the largest gains/losses on the insurance companies’ portfolios conditioned to the climate scenarios. We find that the potential impact of a disorderly transition to low-carbon economy on insurers portfolios of sovereign bonds is moderate in terms of its magnitude. However, it is non-negligible in several scenarios. Thus, it should be regularly monitored and assessed given the importance of sovereign bonds in insurers’ investment portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Battiston & Petr Jakubik & Irene Monasterolo & Keywan Riahi & Bas van Ruijven, 2019. "Climate Risk Assessment of the Sovereign Bond Portfolio of European Insurers," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 15, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:eio:thafsr:15
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    File URL: https://www.eiopa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/publications/reports/eiopa_dec2019_financial-stability-report-thematic_review_climate_risk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irene Monasterolo & Stefano Battiston & Anthony C. Janetos & Zoey Zheng, 2017. "Vulnerable yet relevant: the two dimensions of climate-related financial disclosure," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 495-507, December.
    2. Morana, Claudio & Sbrana, Giacomo, 2019. "Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 274-294.
    3. Alessi, Lucia & Ossola, Elisa & Panzica, Roberto, 2019. "The Greenium matters: greenhouse gas emissions, environmental disclosures, and stock prices," Working Papers 2019-12, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site), revised Apr 2020.
    4. Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 860-872, September.
    5. Stefano BATTISTON, 2019. "The importance of being forward-looking: managing financial stability in the face of climate risk," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 23, pages 39-48, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marie Scholer & Lazaro Cuesta Barbera, 2020. "The EU sustainable finance taxonomy from the perspective of the insurance and reinsurance sector," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 17, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    insurance; climate risk; sovereign bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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