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Detecting Propagation Effects by Observing Aggregate Distributions: The Case of Lumpy Investments

Author

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  • Luigi Guiso

    (European University Institute and EIEF)

  • Chaoqun Lai

    (Utah State University)

  • Makoto Mirei

    (Hitotsubashi University)

Abstract

By using an extensive panel data set of Italian firms, we show empirically that the fraction of firms that engage in a lumpy investment follows a non-normal, double-exponential distribution across region-year. We propose a simple sectoral model that generates the double-exponential distribution that arises from the complementarity of the firms' lumpy investments within a region. We calibrate the degree of complementarity by estimating an individual firm's behavior with the firm-level data. Simulations show that the degree of complementarity estimated at the firm level is consistent with the double-exponential fluctuations observed at the aggregate level.

Suggested Citation

  • Luigi Guiso & Chaoqun Lai & Makoto Mirei, 2011. "Detecting Propagation Effects by Observing Aggregate Distributions: The Case of Lumpy Investments," EIEF Working Papers Series 1112, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Jun 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:eie:wpaper:1112
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Guiso & Chaoqun Lai & Makoto Nirei, 2017. "An Empirical Study of Interaction-Based Aggregate Investment Fluctuations," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 137-157, June.
    2. D'Elia, Enrico & Nascia, Leopoldo & Zeli, Alessandro, 2011. "Analisi dei modelli d’impresa: discontinuità e sviluppo [Analysing firm's evolution: discontinuity and growth]," MPRA Paper 35926, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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