Fiscal consolidation during a depression
In 2009-10, the UK's budget deficit was about 11 per cent of GDP. A credible plan for fiscal consolidation was introduced in the UK over the fiscal years 2011-12 to 2016-17. In this paper, we assess the impact of the scale and timing of this fiscal consolidation programme on output and unemployment in the UK. During a prolonged period of depression when unemployment is well above most estimates of the NAIRU, the impact of fiscal tightening may be different from that in normal times. We contrast three scenarios: the consolidation plan implemented during a depression; the same plan, but with implementation delayed for three years when the economy has recovered; and no consolidation at all. The modelling confirms that doing nothing was not an option and would have led to unsustainable debt ratios. Under both our "immediate consolidation" scenario and the "delayed consolidation", the necessary increases in taxes and reductions in spending reduce growth and increase unemployment, as expected. But our estimates indicate that the impact would have been substantially less, and less long-lasting, if consolidation had been delayed until more normal times. The impact is partly driven by the heightened magnitude of fiscal multipliers, and exacerbated by the prolongation of their impact due to hysteresis effects. The cumulative loss of output over the period 2011-21 amounts to about £239 billion in 2010 prices, or about 16 per cent of 2010 GDP. And unemployment is considerably higher for longer - still 1 percentage point higher even in 2019.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.|
Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Ian Hurst, 2012. "Fiscal multipliers and prospects for consolidation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(1), pages 71-102.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont, 2011.
"How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?,"
IMF Working Papers
11/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," NBER Working Papers 16479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Michael W.L. Elsby & Jennifer C. Smith, 2010. "The Great Recession In The Uk Labour Market: A Transatlantic Perspective," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 214(1), pages 26-37, October.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012.
"Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion,"
in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Burcu Erdogan, 2010.
"Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1078, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2010. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: a time-varying coefficient approach," Discussion Papers 289, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
- Manning, Alan, 1993.
"Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
- Alan Manning, 1992. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0062, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1990.
"Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages,"
NBER Working Papers
3387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011.
"Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2010. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: the impact of the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1152, European Central Bank.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government Bond Risk Premiums in the EU revisited: The Impact of the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nickell, Stephen J, 1987. "Why Is Wage Inflation in Britain So High?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(1), pages 103-128, February.
- Calmfors, Lars & Lang, Harald, 1995. "Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labour Market Programmes in a Union Wage-Setting Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 601-619, May.
- Smith, Jennifer & Elsby, Michael, 2010. "A Great Recession in the UK Labour Market : A Transatlantic Perspective," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 945, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Ian Hurst, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 2. Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Consolidations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 933, OECD Publishing.
- Thomas Laubach, 2009.
"New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
- Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ray Barrell & Tatiana Fic & Iana Liadze, 2009. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in the Banking Crisis," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 207(1), pages 43-50, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:47524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.