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Real wage and productivity stagnation

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  • Machin, Stephen

Abstract

The UK’s economic performance since the global financial crisis has seen real wage growth stagnating for over fifteen years and weak productivity growth with most, but not all, of the wage stagnation overlapping with the productivity slowdown. This paper studies these stagnation patterns in detail for the UK, and places them in international context where the country does not fare well as it both drops down wage and productivity growth rankings across countries. There has been a longer term decline in the influence of labour market institutions in affecting worker wages as the changing balance of power between workers and employers has played a role in the emerging wedge between wage and productivity growth in the stagnation period. The paper concludes with a policy related discussion of possible sources where sustained wage growth could re-emerge, and thereby generate improvements in living standards, in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Machin, Stephen, 2025. "Real wage and productivity stagnation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127594, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:127594
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/127594/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costa, Rui & Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen, 2024. "New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    3. Brian Bell & Paweł Bukowski & Stephen Machin, 2024. "The Decline in Rent Sharing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(3), pages 683-716.
    4. Anna Stansbury & Lawrence H. Summers, 2020. "The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An Explanation for the Recent Evolution of the American Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 1-96.
    5. Jagjit S. Chadha & Issam Samiri, 2022. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity," Working Papers 030, The Productivity Institute.
    6. Machin, Stephen, 1997. "The decline of labour market institutions and the rise in wage inequality in Britain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 647-657, April.
    7. David Innes & Gemma Tetlow, 2015. "Delivering Fiscal Squeeze by Cutting Local Government Spending," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 36, pages 303-325, September.
    8. Joao Paulo Pessoa & John Van Reenen, 2013. "Wage growth and productivity growth: the myth and reality of 'decoupling'," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 401, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. repec:bla:obuest:v:60:y:1998:i:4:p:509-28:a is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Brian D. Bell & Michael K. Pitt, 1998. "Trade Union Decline and the Distribution of Wages in the UK: Evidence from Kernel Density Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(4), pages 509-528, November.
    11. Bell, Brian D & Pitt, Michael K, 1998. "Trade Union Decline and the Distribution of Wages in the UK: Evidence from Kernel Density Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(4), pages 509-528, November.
    12. Cordeiro De Noronha Pessoa, Joao Paulo & Van Reenen, John, 2013. "Decoupling of wage growth and productivity growth? Myth and reality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121790, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Cited by:

    1. Albagli, Pinjas & Cominetti, Nye & Vieira Marques Da Costa, Rui & Eyles, Andrew & Ventura, Guglielmo, 2026. "Changing jobs: worker mobility and wages in the UK labour market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 140392, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

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