IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/oxford/v41y2025i1p105-119..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real wage and productivity stagnation

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Machin

Abstract

The UK’s economic performance since the global financial crisis has seen real wage growth stagnating for over fifteen years and weak productivity growth with most, but not all, of the wage stagnation overlapping with the productivity slowdown. This paper studies these stagnation patterns in detail for the UK, and places them in international context where the country does not fare well as it both drops down wage and productivity growth rankings across countries. There has been a longer term decline in the influence of labour market institutions in affecting worker wages as the changing balance of power between workers and employers has played a role in the emerging wedge between wage and productivity growth in the stagnation period. The paper concludes with a policy related discussion of possible sources where sustained wage growth could re-emerge, and thereby generate improvements in living standards, in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Machin, 2025. "Real wage and productivity stagnation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 41(1), pages 105-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:41:y:2025:i:1:p:105-119.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/graf013
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costa, Rui & Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen, 2024. "New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    3. Brian Bell & Paweł Bukowski & Stephen Machin, 2024. "The Decline in Rent Sharing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(3), pages 683-716.
    4. Machin, Stephen, 1997. "The decline of labour market institutions and the rise in wage inequality in Britain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 647-657, April.
    5. Anna Stansbury & Lawrence H. Summers, 2020. "The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An Explanation for the Recent Evolution of the American Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 1-96.
    6. repec:bla:obuest:v:60:y:1998:i:4:p:509-28:a is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Brian D. Bell & Michael K. Pitt, 1998. "Trade Union Decline and the Distribution of Wages in the UK: Evidence from Kernel Density Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(4), pages 509-528, November.
    8. David Innes & Gemma Tetlow, 2015. "Delivering Fiscal Squeeze by Cutting Local Government Spending," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 36, pages 303-325, September.
    9. Bell, Brian D & Pitt, Michael K, 1998. "Trade Union Decline and the Distribution of Wages in the UK: Evidence from Kernel Density Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 60(4), pages 509-528, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fei Peng & Lili Kang, 2013. "Labor Market Institutions and Skill Premiums: An Empirical Analysis on the UK, 1972-2002," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 959-982.
    2. John T. Addison & Ralph W. Bailey & W. Stanley Siebert, 2009. "Wage Dispersion in a Partially Unionized Labor Force," GEMF Working Papers 2009-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    3. Addison, John T. & Teixeira, Paulino & Evers, Katalin & Kölling, Arnd, 2017. "Changes in Bargaining Status and Intra-Plant Wage Dispersion in Germany. Much Ado about Nothing?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 24, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. John T. Addison & Ralph W. Bailey & W. Stanley Siebert, 2007. "The Impact of Deunionisation on Earnings Dispersion Revisited," Research in Labor Economics, in: Aspects of Worker Well-Being, pages 337-363, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Susan Hayter, 2015. "Unions and collective bargaining," Chapters, in: Janine Berg (ed.), Labour Markets, Institutions and Inequality, chapter 4, pages 95-122, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Holmes, Craig & Mayhew, Ken, 2015. "Have UK Earnings Distributions Polarised?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2015-02, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    7. Alana Gilbert & Euan Phimister & Ioannis Theodossiou, 2003. "Low Pay and Income in Urban and Rural Areas: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(7), pages 1207-1222, June.
    8. Donna Brown & Peter Ingram & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2004. "Everyone's A Winner? Union Effects on Persistence in Private Sector Wage Settlements: Longitudinal Evidence from Britain," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1104, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    9. Annie Tubadji & Thomas Colwill & Don Webber, 2021. "Voting with your feet or voting for Brexit: The tale of those stuck behind," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 247-277, April.
    10. Töngür, Ünal & Elveren, Adem Yavuz, 2014. "Deunionization and pay inequality in OECD Countries: A panel Granger causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 417-425.
    11. Cyprien Batut & Ulysse Lojkine & Paolo Santini, 2021. "Which side are you on? A historical perspective on union membership composition in four European countries," Working Papers halshs-03364022, HAL.
    12. Mari, Gabriele & Keizer, Renske, 2020. "Families of Austerity: Welfare Cuts and Family Stress in Britain," SocArXiv vdej8, Center for Open Science.
    13. Walsh, Frank & Strobl, Eric, 2009. "Recent Trends in Trade Union Membership in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 117-138.
    14. Pischke, Jorn-Steffen & Dinardo, John & Hallock, Kevin F, 2000. "Unions And The Labour Market For Managers," CEPR Discussion Papers 2418, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Michael Ollinger & Friedrich L. Sell, 2017. "What Determines Union Density? A Political Economy Model of the Labor Market with Empirical Evidence in the Context of European Countries," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 10, pages 18-32, November.
    16. Stephen Machin, 2024. "Real wages, inequality and living standards," CEP Election Analysis Papers 066, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Busso, Matias & DiNardo, John & McCrary, Justin, 2009. "New Evidence on the Finite Sample Properties of Propensity Score Matching and Reweighting Estimators," IZA Discussion Papers 3998, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Kharoufeh, Jeffrey P. & Goulias, Konstadinos G., 2002. "Nonparametric identification of daily activity durations using kernel density estimators," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 59-82, January.
    19. David Johnston & Wang-Sheng Lee, 2011. "Explaining the Female Black-White Obesity Gap: A Decomposition Analysis of Proximal Causes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1429-1450, November.
    20. Crafts, Nicholas, 2019. "The Fall in UK Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: a Much Bigger Estimate," CEPR Discussion Papers 13428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:41:y:2025:i:1:p:105-119.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/oxrep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.