IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/egc/wpaper/780.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor Market Dynamics in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Mark C. Foley

Abstract

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Russia experienced a series of economic shocks, resulting in large decreases in output but limited change in employment. Using information contained in a nationally representative longitudinal survey of Russian citizens, this research analyzes the labor market behavior of individuals from 1992 to 1996 during the transition to a market economy. Under Markovian assumptions, the pattern of transitions between labor market states is identified. Results indicate that the state sector has declined, but that the emerging private sector has played a limited role in alleviating growing unemployment. The probability of losing a job increased 75 percent from 1992 to 1996 while the re-employment probability declined by 24 percent, leading to an increase in long-term unemployment. Multinomial logit estimates demonstrate that workers with a personal ownership stake in their firm, the prevalence of which has more than tripled since 1992, are significantly less likely to lose their job or change to a new one. Men are more likely to make a transition to non-state employment, while women are more apt not only to move into the state sector, but also to remain in a state sector job. The relative instability of the private sector and self-employment, which are predominated by men and younger persons, is evident from higher flows into unemployment from these sectors. In contrast to the state sector, hiring in the private sector is primarily from the pool of employed individuals. The growing wage arrears crisis has not influenced labor market transitions, but the incidence of forced leaves is strongly and positively associated with dropping out of the labor force and changing jobs. Education has become a factor in exiting unemployment to a job. While there was no distinction by level of education in 1992-93, by 1995-96 individuals with higher, special secondary, or ordinary secondary education are more likely to find employment than those with primary education or less. University or graduate degrees carry the greatest weight, increasing the re-employment probability by 27.5 percentage points. Higher and secondary education provided protection against job loss initially, but by 1996 only higher education provides a distinct advantage in maintaining employment. This result is suggestive of a divergence between education and skills acquired in the Soviet era and those demanded by the jobs of an emerging market economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Labor Market Dynamics in Russia," Working Papers 780, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:egc:wpaper:780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp780.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
    2. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    3. Commander, Simon & Yemtsov, Ruslan, 1995. "Russian unemployment : its magnitude, characteristics, and regional dimensions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1426, The World Bank.
    4. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 13-72.
    5. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Unemployment Benefits, Labor Market Transitions, and Spurious Flows: A Multinational Logit Model with Errors in Classification," NBER Working Papers 4434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 1998. "Winners and Losers in Russia's Economic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1094-1116, December.
    7. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
    8. Atkinson, Anthony B & Micklewright, John, 1991. "Unemployment Compensation and Labor Market Transitions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1679-1727, December.
    9. repec:imf:imfops:104 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Granick,David, 1987. "Job Rights in the Soviet Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521332958.
    11. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    12. Gregory, Paul R & Collier, Irwin L, Jr, 1988. "Unemployment in the Soviet Union: Evidence from the Soviet Interview Project," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 613-632, September.
    13. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    14. Burdett, Kenneth & Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Sharma, Sunil, 1985. "Layoffs and duration dependence in a model of turnover," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-69, April.
    15. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-1266, September.
    16. James Annable, 1984. "Analysis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 59-61, May.
    17. Commander, Simon & Liberman, Leonid & Yemtsov, Ruslan, 1993. "Unemployment and labor market dynamics in Russia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1167, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sorm, Vit & Terrell, Katherine, 2000. "Sectoral Restructuring and Labor Mobility: A Comparative Look at the Czech Republic," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 431-455, September.
    2. Vit Storm & Katherine Terrell, 1999. "A Comparitive Look at Labor Mobility in the Czech Republic: Where Have all the Workers Gone?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 140, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Murali Kuchibhotla & Peter F. Orazem & Sanjana Ravi, 2020. "The scarring effects of youth joblessness in Sri Lanka," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 269-287, February.
    4. Broadman, Harry G. & Recanatini, Francesca, 2001. "Is Russia restructuring ? new evidence on job creation and destruction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2641, The World Bank.
    5. Steven Stillman, 2000. "Labor Market Uncertainty and Private Sector Labor Supply in Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 359, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    6. Kuchibhotla, Murali, 2013. "Three essays in development economics," ISU General Staff Papers 201301010800004461, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Linz, Susan J. & Semykina, Anastasia, 2008. "Attitudes and performance: An analysis of Russian workers," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 694-717, April.
    8. Klara Z. Sabirianova, 2000. "The Great Human Capital Reallocation: An Empirical Analysis of Occupational Mobility in Transitional Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 309, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    10. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Working Papers 779, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    11. Aysit TANSEL & H. Mehmet TASCI, 2001. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration for Men and Women in Turkey," Middle East and North Africa 330400055, EcoMod.
    12. Natalia V. Smirnova, 2003. "Re-employment Probabilities and Wage Offer Function for Russian Labor Market," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 547, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Lehmann, Hartmut & Wadsworth, Jonathan & Acquisti, Alessandro, 1999. "Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 595-617, December.
    14. Steven Stillman, 2000. "Labor Market Uncertainty and Private Sector Labor Supply in Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 359, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    15. Natalia Smirnova, 2003. "Job Search Behavior of Unemployed in Russia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-629, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    16. Lehmann, Hartmut & Wadsworth, Jonathan & Acquisti, Alessandro, 1999. "Grime and Punishment: Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," IZA Discussion Papers 65, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Aysit TANSEL & H. Mehmet TASCI, "undated". "Determinants of Unemployment Duration for Men and Women in Turkey," Middle East and North Africa 330400055, EcoMod.
    18. Heinrich Hockmann & Michael Kopsidis, 2007. "What Kind of Technological Change for Russian Agriculture? The Transition Crisis of 1991-2005 from the Induced Innovation Theory Perspective," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 35-52.
    19. Lauerová, Jana Stefanová & Terrell, Katherine, 2002. "Explaining Gender Differences in Unemployment with Micro Data on Flows in Post-Communist Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 600, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Tito Boeri & Katherine Terrell, 2002. "Institutional Determinants of Labor Reallocation in Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 51-76, Winter.
    21. Hartmut Lehmann & Jonathon Wadsworth & Alessandro Acquisti, 1997. "Grime and Punishment: Employment, Wages and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 103, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    22. Tasci, H. Mehmet & Tansel, Aysit, 2005. "Unemployment and Transitions in the Turkish Labor Market: Evidence from Individual Level Data," IZA Discussion Papers 1663, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. repec:pit:wpaper:270 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Foley, Mark C., 1997. "Labor Market Dynamics in Russia," Center Discussion Papers 28534, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    2. George Neumann, 1996. "Search Models and Duration Data," Econometrics 9602008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Mar 1996.
    3. Kupets, Olga, 2006. "Determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 228-247, June.
    4. Hamilton, Barton & MacKinnon, Mary, 1996. "Long-term employment relationships in the early twentieth century: Evidence from personnel data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-383, December.
    5. Foley, Mark C., 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Center Discussion Papers 28427, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    6. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    7. repec:eee:labchp:v:2:y:1986:i:c:p:849-919 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chantal Cases, 1994. "Durées de chômage et comportements d'offre de travail : une revue de la littérature," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 113(2), pages 155-170.
    9. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    10. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Working Papers 779, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    11. Christofides, Louis N & McKenna, C J, 1996. "Unemployment Insurance and Job Duration in Canada," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(2), pages 286-312, April.
    12. Aysit Tansel & H. Mehmet Taşçı, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 501-530, December.
    13. Galiani, Sebastian & Hopenhayn, Hugo A., 2003. "Duration and risk of unemployment in Argentina," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 199-212, June.
    14. Ando, Amy, 1998. "Delay on the Path to the Endangered Species List: Do Costs and Benefits Matter," Discussion Papers dp-97-43-rev, Resources For the Future.
    15. Klein, Michael W, 1996. "Timing Is All: Elections and the Duration of United States Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 84-101, February.
    16. Rolf Aaberge, 2002. "Characterization and Measurement of Duration Dependence in Hazard Rate Models," Discussion Papers 319, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    17. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2005. "Financial constraints and real activity: a non-structural approach using UK survey data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 64-80, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Irina Denisova, 2001. "Staying Longer on Unemployment Register in Russia: Lack of Education, Bad Luck or Something Else?," Working Papers w0017, New Economic School (NES), revised Nov 2002.
    19. Pellizzari, Michele, 2006. "Unemployment duration and the interactions between unemployment insurance and social assistance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 773-798, December.
    20. Steiner, Viktor, 1993. "Long-term unemployment during the transition to a market economy: Eastern Germany after unification," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-14, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    21. Wiji Narendranathan & Mark B. Stewart, 1993. "Modelling the Probability of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models with Flexible Base‐Line Hazards," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 42(1), pages 63-83, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:egc:wpaper:780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/egyalus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benjamin King (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/egyalus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.