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Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia

  • Mark C. Foley
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    Using information contained in a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of Russian citizens, this research analyzes the determinants of unemployment duration during the early stages of economic transition. A competing-risks, discrete-time waiting model, augmented to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity, is employed to analyze whether there is evidence of duration dependence in unemployment, and the role of demographic characteristics, alternative income support, and local demand conditions in explaining unemployment duration for working-age individuals. Married women are found to experience significantly longer unemployment spells before exiting to a job compared to married men. Older individuals can expect to be unemployed longer than comparable younger workers. Persons with higher education do not have significantly longer unemployment spells than those with secondary or even primary education. Having children has no effect on the duration of unemployment, however they do appear to motivate women to drop out of the labor force, significantly decreasing the time spent searching for work. Local labor market demand conditions have a significant effect on duration. Individuals in regions with higher unemployment rates, all else equal, have longer unemployment spells. With respect to the reason for the entering unemployment, persons laid off from their last job have shorter durations relative to quitters. Finally, there is evidence of duration dependence in the re-employment hazard in Russia, with a period of positive duration dependence in the first 7 months, followed by a declining hazard until approximately eighteen months. These results are robust to the introduction of unobserved heterogeneity.

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    File URL: http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp779.pdf
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    Paper provided by Economic Growth Center, Yale University in its series Working Papers with number 779.

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    Length: 39 pages
    Date of creation: Aug 1997
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:egc:wpaper:779
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    1. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July.
    2. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    3. Gary Solon, 1982. "Work Incentive Effects of Taxing Employment Benefits," Working Papers 529, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. Mortensen, Dale T, 1970. "Job Search, the Duration of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 847-62, December.
    5. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
    6. Ham, John C & Rea, Samuel A, Jr, 1987. "Unemployment Insurance and Male Unemployment Duration in Canada," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 325-53, July.
    7. Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Labor Market Dynamics in Russia," Working Papers 780, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    8. Katz, Lawrence F. & Meyer, Bruce D., 1990. "The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 45-72, February.
    9. Moffitt, Robert & Nicholson, Walter, 1982. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment: The Case of Federal Supplemental Benefits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-11, February.
    10. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
    11. Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 347-68, September.
    12. Gregory, Paul R & Collier, Irwin L, Jr, 1988. "Unemployment in the Soviet Union: Evidence from the Soviet Interview Project," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 613-32, September.
    13. Korpi, Tomas, 1995. "Effects of Manpower Policies on Duration Dependence in Re-employment Rates: The Example of Sweden," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(247), pages 353-71, August.
    14. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
    15. Foley, M.C., 1997. "Labor Market Dynamics in Russia," Papers 780, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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