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Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia

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  • Mark C. Foley

Abstract

Using information contained in a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of Russian citizens, this research analyzes the determinants of unemployment duration during the early stages of economic transition. A competing-risks, discrete-time waiting model, augmented to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity, is employed to analyze whether there is evidence of duration dependence in unemployment, and the role of demographic characteristics, alternative income support, and local demand conditions in explaining unemployment duration for working-age individuals. Married women are found to experience significantly longer unemployment spells before exiting to a job compared to married men. Older individuals can expect to be unemployed longer than comparable younger workers. Persons with higher education do not have significantly longer unemployment spells than those with secondary or even primary education. Having children has no effect on the duration of unemployment, however they do appear to motivate women to drop out of the labor force, significantly decreasing the time spent searching for work. Local labor market demand conditions have a significant effect on duration. Individuals in regions with higher unemployment rates, all else equal, have longer unemployment spells. With respect to the reason for the entering unemployment, persons laid off from their last job have shorter durations relative to quitters. Finally, there is evidence of duration dependence in the re-employment hazard in Russia, with a period of positive duration dependence in the first 7 months, followed by a declining hazard until approximately eighteen months. These results are robust to the introduction of unobserved heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark C. Foley, 1997. "Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia," Working Papers 779, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:egc:wpaper:779
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    File URL: http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp779.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Voicu, Alexandru, 2005. "Employment dynamics in the Romanian labor market. A Markov chain Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 604-639, September.
    2. Kupets, Olga, 2006. "Determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 228-247, June.
    3. Camp, Kevin & Waldorf, Brigitte, 2014. "The impact of spatial flexibility on unemployment duration in young college-educated workers," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170678, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Louise Grogan & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2001. "The duration of unemployment in Russia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 549-568.
    5. Furmanov, Kirill, 2009. "On Measurement of the Average Unemployment Duration using Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 14(2), pages 74-99.
    6. Carlos Alberto Foronda Rojas & Andrea Alcaráz, 2015. "Estimation and characteristics of unemployment duration in Bolivia," Investigación & Desarrollo 0215, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Jun 2015.
    7. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Ríos, 2015. "Duración del desempleo en Colombia: género, intensidad de búsqueda y anuncios de vacantes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012528, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    8. García, A., 2016. "Oaxaca-Blinder Type Counterfactual Decomposition Methods for Duration Outcomes," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 014186, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    9. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Ríos, 2015. "Duración del desempleo en Colombia: género, intensidad de búsqueda y anuncios de vacantes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012528, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    10. Anton Nivorozhkin, 2005. "New estimates of the risk and duration of registered unemployment in urban Russia," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 60, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    11. Furmanov, Kirill & Chernysheva, Irina, 2012. "Health and job search in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 26(2), pages 62-91.
    12. Linz, Susan J. & Semykina, Anastasia, 2008. "How do workers fare during transition? Perceptions of job insecurity among Russian workers, 1995-2004," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 442-458, June.
    13. Tichit, Ariane, 2006. "The optimal speed of transition revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 349-369, June.
    14. Furmanov, Kirill & Shelkovnikova, Irina, 2014. "Unemployed and out of the labor force: What is the difference? Modeling the probability of finding a job," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 35(3), pages 86-106.
    15. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2809-2857 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Svejnar, Jan, 1999. "Labor markets in the transitional Central and East European economies," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 42, pages 2809-2857 Elsevier.
    17. Tahir Mahmood & Amjid Ali & Noureen Akhtar & Muhammad Iqbal & Sadia Qamar & Hafiz Zafar Nazir & Nasir Abbas & Iram Sana, 2014. "Determinants of Unemployment In Pakistan: A Statistical Study," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(12), pages 1163-1175, December.

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