IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eer/wpalle/11-04e.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can a pure real business cycle model explain the real exchange rate: the case of Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Onishchenko Kateryna

Abstract

Real exchange rate (RER) of Ukrainian currency can be explained within the real business cycle framework without any forms of nominal rigidities. Fitting Ukrainian quarterly data for the period 1996 Q1-2009 Q3 into the small open economy real business cycle model and testing it by method of indirect inference shows that RER can be reproduced by RBC framework. I run the basic model with Ukrainian data and derive for this model the behavior of the productivity and preference shocks that perform as an I(1) process. Therefore, the extracted shocks are the shocks occurring historically in the Ukrainian economy since they are jointly implied by the model and the data. The generated pseudo-samples for RER by method of bootstrapping allow to obtain the distribution of the best fit ARIMA(2,1,4) parameters and to test with the Wald statistics if the ARIMA parameters estimated with the historical data lie within confidence intervals of those estimated for bootstrapped pseudo Q parameters. All of the ARIMA parameters for the real exchange rate lie within 95% confidence intervals and the parameters jointly lie within 95% confidence interval as it indicated be the Wald statistics. Therefore, real exchange rate of Ukrainian hryvnia during the period 1996-2009 can be explained within real business cycle framework. VAR and VECM methodologies are also applied in order to capture the evolution and the interdependencies between multiple time series of the RBC model. Applying unrestricted VAR to HP filtered I(0) data series I find that real exchange rate behaves in the predefined by RBC framework manner. Productivity on impact leads to real appreciation followed by gradual depreciation. VECM mechanism is applied to the non-stationary I(1) data series that is provided in levels and does not contradict the previous results. These obtained results are quite encouraging and has important policy implications. First of all, it advocates in favour of more flexible exchange rate policy regime in Ukraine and avoidance of the non-sterilized interventions on the currency market. Besides, it provides the further guidance for the direction of effective monetary policy to fight inflation that should be more oriented at the inflation targeting using the interest rate policy instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Onishchenko Kateryna, 2011. "Can a pure real business cycle model explain the real exchange rate: the case of Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 11/04e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:11/04e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eercnetwork.com/default/download/creater/working_papers/file/bf7dd9a4f6cdcdcc85a5b83c84e6eee2c7027908.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
    3. Alina Kudina, 2000. "An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0196, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Tale of Switching Attractors," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 3, pages 71-117, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    6. Hall, Stephen & Mizon, Grayham E. & Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modelling economies in transition: an introduction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 339-357, August.
    7. Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modeling inflation in Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 375-385, August.
    8. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 2000. "Explaining the Poor Performance of Consumption‐based Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2863-2878, December.
    9. Jón Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-533, March.
    10. Patrick Minford & Konstantinos Theodoridis & David Meenagh, 2009. "Testing a Model of the UK by the Method of Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 265-291, April.
    11. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2010. "Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1170, October.
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
    14. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Martínez-García, Enrique & Søndergaard, Jens, 2013. "Investment And Real Exchange Rates In Sticky Price Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 195-234, March.
    16. Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Jens Sondergaard, 2008. "Technical note on "The real exchange rate in sticky price models: does investment matter?"," Globalization Institute Working Papers 16, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2001. "A note on the pass-through from exchange rate and foreign price changes to inflation in selected emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 69-81, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik, 2003. "Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy: The Case of Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 2003/126, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Mr. Peter M Keller & Mr. Thomas J Richardson, 2003. "Nominal Anchors in the CIS," IMF Working Papers 2003/179, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Marianna Grimaldi & Paul De Grauwe, 2003. "Bubbling and Crashing Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 1045, CESifo.
    21. Roman Sustek & Finn Kydland & Espen Henriksen, 2008. "The High Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates across Nations," 2008 Meeting Papers 773, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. van Aarle, Bas & de Jong, Eelke & Sosoian, Robert, 2006. "Exchange rate management in Ukraine: Is there a case for more flexibility?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 282-305, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Aarle, Bas & de Jong, Eelke & Sosoian, Robert, 2006. "Exchange rate management in Ukraine: Is there a case for more flexibility?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 282-305, October.
    2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1417-1428, November.
    3. Martínez-García, Enrique & Søndergaard, Jens, 2013. "Investment And Real Exchange Rates In Sticky Price Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 195-234, March.
    4. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio & Fang Yao, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models," Working Paper Series 2014-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
    6. Enrique Martínez-García & Jens Søndergaard, 2010. "Investment and Trade Patterns in a Sticky-Price, Open-Economy Model," Contributions to Economics, in: Giorgio Calcagnini & Enrico Saltari (ed.), The Economics of Imperfect Markets, chapter 0, pages 183-212, Springer.
    7. Takashi Kano, 2021. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 95-117, February.
    8. Engel, Charles, 2019. "Real exchange rate convergence: The roles of price stickiness and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 21-32.
    9. Michael Dotsey & Margarida Duarte, 2017. "How Important is the Currency Denomination of Exports in Open Economy Models?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 1-18, January.
    10. Juvenal, Luciana, 2011. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 849-876, September.
    11. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    12. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2011. "Aggregation and the PPP Puzzle in a Sticky-Price Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2391-2424, October.
    13. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
    14. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2009. "Some problems in the testing of DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/31, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Nam, Deokwoo & Wang, Jian, 2015. "The effects of surprise and anticipated technology changes on international relative prices and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 162-177.
    16. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2019. "The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: Evidence from military spending panel data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 144-157.
    17. Pau Rabanal & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "Nontradable Goods and the Real Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 495-535, July.
    18. Bianca De Paoli & Jens Søndergaard, 2017. "Revisiting the Forward Premium Anomaly Using Consumption Habits: A New Keynesian Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(335), pages 516-540, July.
    19. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Limited asset market participation and the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 566-584, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:11/04e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anton Pashchenko (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.eercnetwork.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.